Suitable oasis scales under a government plan in the Kaidu-Konqi River Basin of northwest arid region, China

The Yanqi Basin and the Konqi River Basin of the Kaidu-Konqi River Basin were chosen as the study sites in this paper in order to investigate suitable scales of natural and artificial oases with a specified water resource and water quantity planned by the local government. Combined with remote-sensing images from 2013, water resources in 2013, 2025 and 2035, and weather and socioeconomic data, suitable scales of oases were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) The total available water quantities in the Yanqi Basin and the Konqi River Basin without river base flow, and the input of water into Bosten Lake and Tarim River, over high-, normal and low-flow periods, in 2025 and 2035, were 19.04 × 10(8) m(3), 10.52 × 10(8) m(3), 4.95 × 10(8) m(3), 9.95 × 10(8) m(3) and 9.95 × 10(8) m(3), as well as 21.77 × 10(8) m(3), 13.95 × 10(8) m(3), 10.11 × 10(8) m(3), 12.50 × 10(8) m(3), and 9.74 × 10(8) m(3). (2) The water demand of the natural oasis in the Yanqi Basin and the Konqi River Basin was 2.59 × 10(8) m(3), and 4.59 × 10(8) m(3), respectively. (3) The total water consumption of the artificial oasis in 2013, 2025, and 2035 were 10.51 × 10(8) m(3), 10.99 × 10(8) m(3) and 10.74 × 10(8) m(3) in the Yanqi Basin, respectively, and 18.59 × 10(8) m(3), 14.07 × 10(8) m(3) and 13.30 × 10(8)m(3) in the Kongqi River Basin, respectively. (4) Under government planning, the optimal area in 2025 and 2035 should be 5,100.06 km(2) and 5,096.15 km(2) in the Yanqi Basin oases, and 6,008.53 km(2) and 4,691.36 km(2) in the Konqi River Basin oases, respectively, under the different inflow variations, and 4,972.71 km(2) and 4,969.22 km(2) in the Yanqi Basin oases, and 5,975.17 km(2) and 4,665.67 km(2) in the Kongqi River Basin oases, respectively, under the appropriate proportion. (5) The artificial oases in these basins should be greatly decreased in the future due to limited water resources.