Progression of diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and chronic kidney disease in a three chronic conditions multistate model

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, and chronic kidney disease are three major chronic conditions that develop with increasing risks among adults as they get older. The interconnectedness of these three chronic conditions is well known, while each condition acts as a prognostic risk factor for the other two. It is important to understand the progressive relationships of these three conditions over time in terms of transitioning between clinical states and the impact on patients’ survival. METHODS: We investigate the survival characteristics of a Medicare population aged 65 years and above in a multistate system that contained clinical states specified by death and diagnosis combinations of three chronic conditions. The study was conducted using Hawaii Medicare claims data from 2009 to 2013. To evaluate the progression of a subject with one of the newly diagnosed chronic conditions, we analyzed quantities such as state occupation probabilities in eight states and hazards of sixteen transition types. We quantified effects and significances of potential covariates such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, comorbidity burden and financial status on these temporal functions. Nonparametric method of estimating state occupation probabilities and pseudo-value based method for estimating covariate effects of a survival system were utilized. RESULTS: We found a range of age, gender, race/ethnicity and financial status based interesting covariate influences on transitions and state occupation probabilities of the system. CONCLUSION: Survival characteristics of the disease system are influenced by subject-specific effects. Subgroup-specific interventions/screenings should be considered for the optimal prevention and care. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5688-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.