厦门市居民肺癌死亡与减寿趋势分析及预测

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In recent years, the incidence and mortality of lung cancer is rising. It has become the leading cause of death of malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study is to explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to lung cancer in residents in Xiamen, so as to provide the basis data on preventing lung cancer in Xiamen. METHODS: The data of residents in Xiamen dying of lung cancer from 2005 to 2014 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost (AYLL), and the average percentage change (APC) of mortality rate. GM(1, 1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2014, the average mortality rate of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen was 28.58 per 100, 000 persons, of which in male was 2.90 times as that in female. The APC was 4.86%. The AYLL, which was 7.8 years, had decline trend from 2005 to 2014. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2.16%-8.83%. The mortality rate and AYLL of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen would increase from 2015 to 2019. CONCLUSION: The mortality of lung cancer increased year by year in Xiamen. There are both increasing trend of mortality and years of life lost in future. So we should pay more attentions on preventing and curing of lung cancer.