Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu

We conducted a spatially explicit, stochastic, individually based population viability analysis for the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered subspecies of waterbird endemic to fragmented coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i. This subspecies persists on two islands, with n...

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Autores principales: van Rees, Charles B., Reed, J. Michael
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: PeerJ Inc. 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6016525/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29942683
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4990
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author van Rees, Charles B.
Reed, J. Michael
author_facet van Rees, Charles B.
Reed, J. Michael
author_sort van Rees, Charles B.
collection PubMed
description We conducted a spatially explicit, stochastic, individually based population viability analysis for the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered subspecies of waterbird endemic to fragmented coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i. This subspecies persists on two islands, with no apparent movement between them. We assessed extirpation risk for birds on O‘ahu, where the resident gallinule population is made up of several fragmented subpopulations. Data on genetic differentiation were used to delineate subpopulations and estimate dispersal rates between them. We used sensitivity analyses to gauge the impact of current uncertainty of vital rate parameters on population projections, to ascertain the relative importance of gallinule vital rates to population persistence, and to compare the efficacy of potential management strategies. We used available sea level rise projections to examine the relative vulnerability of O‘ahu’s gallinule population to habitat loss arising from this threat. Our model predicted persistence of the island’s gallinule population at 160 years (∼40 generations), but with high probabilities of extirpation for small subpopulations. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of juvenile and adult mortality to population persistence in Hawaiian gallinules, justifying current predator control efforts and suggesting the need for additional research on chick and fledgling survival. Subpopulation connectivity from dispersal had little effect on the persistence of the island-wide population, but strong effects on the persistence of smaller subpopulations. Our model also predicted island-wide population persistence under predicted sea level rise scenarios, but with O‘ahu’s largest gallinule populations losing >40% of current carrying capacity.
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spelling pubmed-60165252018-06-25 Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu van Rees, Charles B. Reed, J. Michael PeerJ Animal Behavior We conducted a spatially explicit, stochastic, individually based population viability analysis for the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), an endangered subspecies of waterbird endemic to fragmented coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i. This subspecies persists on two islands, with no apparent movement between them. We assessed extirpation risk for birds on O‘ahu, where the resident gallinule population is made up of several fragmented subpopulations. Data on genetic differentiation were used to delineate subpopulations and estimate dispersal rates between them. We used sensitivity analyses to gauge the impact of current uncertainty of vital rate parameters on population projections, to ascertain the relative importance of gallinule vital rates to population persistence, and to compare the efficacy of potential management strategies. We used available sea level rise projections to examine the relative vulnerability of O‘ahu’s gallinule population to habitat loss arising from this threat. Our model predicted persistence of the island’s gallinule population at 160 years (∼40 generations), but with high probabilities of extirpation for small subpopulations. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of juvenile and adult mortality to population persistence in Hawaiian gallinules, justifying current predator control efforts and suggesting the need for additional research on chick and fledgling survival. Subpopulation connectivity from dispersal had little effect on the persistence of the island-wide population, but strong effects on the persistence of smaller subpopulations. Our model also predicted island-wide population persistence under predicted sea level rise scenarios, but with O‘ahu’s largest gallinule populations losing >40% of current carrying capacity. PeerJ Inc. 2018-06-22 /pmc/articles/PMC6016525/ /pubmed/29942683 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4990 Text en ©2018 van Rees and Reed http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
spellingShingle Animal Behavior
van Rees, Charles B.
Reed, J. Michael
Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu
title Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu
title_full Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu
title_fullStr Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu
title_full_unstemmed Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu
title_short Predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the Hawaiian common gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of O‘ahu
title_sort predicted effects of landscape change, sea level rise, and habitat management on the extirpation risk of the hawaiian common gallinule (gallinula galeata sandvicensis) on the island of o‘ahu
topic Animal Behavior
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6016525/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29942683
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4990
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