Assessing Prognostic Factors in Hodgkin's Lymphoma: Multistate Illness-Death Model

Background: Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) is a unique cancer of lymphocytes that has unknown reason. As lymphocytes are found throughout the lymphatic system, HL can start almost anywhere in the body. It usually starts in a group of lymph nodes in one part of the body; it usually spreads in a predictable form, from one group of lymph nodes to the next. Eventually, it can spread to almost any tissue or organ in the body through the lymphatic system or the bloodstream. So it's important to evaluate the prognostic factors of mortality and recurrence. The aim of this study is to use multistate model to consider the event history of patients and assess important prognostic factors. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective review on 389 patients with Hodgkin's disease referred to the Oncology and Hematology Center, Shafa Hospital, Ahvaz during 2002 and 2012. An illness – death model was fitted to assess the hazard of transitions during the course of the disease for each prognostic factor. Results: The results showed that the prevalence rate was higher in male population ≥50 years of age with a hemoglobin level of less than 10.5 g per deciliter and diagnosis of advanced stage of disease. The risk of death for males was twice more than females (HR=2.07). Moreover, patients with mediastina and spleen involvement were more than others in danger of death (1.66 and 1.36, respectively). Conclusion: In conclusion, the multistate model offers an appropriate method to consider the event history of patients and determine main prognostic factors, which play an important role in rapid diagnosis and choosing the best treatment choice for each patient.