Determinants of change in fertility pattern among women in Uganda during the period 2006–2011

BACKGROUND: Studies on fertility in Uganda have attributed fertility reduction to a shift in the overall characteristics of women of reproductive age. It is not clear whether the reduction in fertility is due to changing socioeconomic and demographic characteristics over time or stems from the shifts in the reproductive behavior of women. In this paper we examine how fertility rates have changed between 2006 and 2011 and whether these changes have resulted from changing characteristics or from changing reproductive behavior of women. METHODS: Using the 2006 and 2011 Demographic and Health Survey data for Uganda, Multivariate Poisson Decomposition techniques were applied to evaluate observed changes in fertility. RESULTS: Changing characteristics of women aged 15–49 years significantly contributed to the overall change in fertility from 2006 to 2011. The change observed in older age at first marriage was the major contributor to the changes in fertility. The contribution that can be attributed to changes in reproductive behavior was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that the major contribution to the reduction in fertility between 2006 and 2011 was from increased education and delayed marriage among women. Continued improvement in secondary school completion, will lead to older age at first marriage and will continue to be an important factor in Uganda’s declining fertility rates.