Cargando…

An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France

BACKGROUND: Anticipating the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is required to develop adequate public health policies. METHODS: A dynamic population model was built to estimate COPD prevalence by 2025 using data collected during the most recent large general population st...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Burgel, Pierre-Régis, Laurendeau, Caroline, Raherison, Chantal, Fuhrman, Claire, Roche, Nicolas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6022451/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29950169
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7
_version_ 1783335679547146240
author Burgel, Pierre-Régis
Laurendeau, Caroline
Raherison, Chantal
Fuhrman, Claire
Roche, Nicolas
author_facet Burgel, Pierre-Régis
Laurendeau, Caroline
Raherison, Chantal
Fuhrman, Claire
Roche, Nicolas
author_sort Burgel, Pierre-Régis
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Anticipating the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is required to develop adequate public health policies. METHODS: A dynamic population model was built to estimate COPD prevalence by 2025 using data collected during the most recent large general population study on COPD prevalence in France (2005) as baseline values. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the effect of variations in key input variables. RESULTS: The model predicted a steady increase in crude COPD prevalence among subjects aged≥45 years from 2005 (prevalence estimate: 84.51‰) to 2025 (projected prevalence: 95.76‰, + 0.56‰/yr). There was a 4-fold increase in the prevalence of GOLD grade 3–4 cases, a 23% relative increase in women and a 21% relative increase in subjects ≥75 years. In sensitivity analyses, these temporal trends were robust. Factors associated with > 5% relative variations in projected 2025 prevalence estimates were baseline prevalence and severity distribution, incidence in women and severity of incident cases, transition rates between severity grades, and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of future COPD epidemiology consistently predict an increase in the prevalence of moderate-to-very severe COPD, especially due to increases among women and subjects aged ≥75 years. Developing robust prediction models requires collecting reliable data on current COPD epidemiology. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-6022451
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2018
publisher BioMed Central
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-60224512018-07-09 An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France Burgel, Pierre-Régis Laurendeau, Caroline Raherison, Chantal Fuhrman, Claire Roche, Nicolas Respir Res Research BACKGROUND: Anticipating the future burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is required to develop adequate public health policies. METHODS: A dynamic population model was built to estimate COPD prevalence by 2025 using data collected during the most recent large general population study on COPD prevalence in France (2005) as baseline values. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the effect of variations in key input variables. RESULTS: The model predicted a steady increase in crude COPD prevalence among subjects aged≥45 years from 2005 (prevalence estimate: 84.51‰) to 2025 (projected prevalence: 95.76‰, + 0.56‰/yr). There was a 4-fold increase in the prevalence of GOLD grade 3–4 cases, a 23% relative increase in women and a 21% relative increase in subjects ≥75 years. In sensitivity analyses, these temporal trends were robust. Factors associated with > 5% relative variations in projected 2025 prevalence estimates were baseline prevalence and severity distribution, incidence in women and severity of incident cases, transition rates between severity grades, and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of future COPD epidemiology consistently predict an increase in the prevalence of moderate-to-very severe COPD, especially due to increases among women and subjects aged ≥75 years. Developing robust prediction models requires collecting reliable data on current COPD epidemiology. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2018-06-27 2018 /pmc/articles/PMC6022451/ /pubmed/29950169 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7 Text en © The Author(s). 2018 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research
Burgel, Pierre-Régis
Laurendeau, Caroline
Raherison, Chantal
Fuhrman, Claire
Roche, Nicolas
An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France
title An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France
title_full An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France
title_fullStr An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France
title_full_unstemmed An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France
title_short An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France
title_sort attempt at modeling copd epidemiological trends in france
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6022451/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29950169
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12931-018-0827-7
work_keys_str_mv AT burgelpierreregis anattemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT laurendeaucaroline anattemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT raherisonchantal anattemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT fuhrmanclaire anattemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT rochenicolas anattemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT burgelpierreregis attemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT laurendeaucaroline attemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT raherisonchantal attemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT fuhrmanclaire attemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance
AT rochenicolas attemptatmodelingcopdepidemiologicaltrendsinfrance