Measuring Land Change in Coastal Zone around a Rapidly Urbanized Bay

Urban development is a major cause for eco-degradation in many coastal regions. Understanding urbanization dynamics and underlying driving factors is crucial for urban planning and management. Land-use dynamic degree indices and intensity analysis were used to measure land changes occurred in 1990, 2002, 2009, and 2017 in the coastal zone around Quanzhou bay, which is a rapidly urbanized bay in Southeast China. The comprehensive land-use dynamic degree and interval level intensity analysis both revealed that land change was accelerating across the three time intervals in a three-kilometer-wide zone along the coastal line (zone A), while land change was fastest during the second time interval 2002–2009 in a separate terrestrial area within coastal zone (zone B). Driven by urbanization, built-up gains and cropland losses were active for all time intervals in both zones. Mudflat losses were active except in the first time interval in zone A due to the intensive sea reclamation. The gain of mangrove was active while the loss of mangrove is dormant for all three intervals in zone A. Transition level analysis further revealed the similarities and differences in processes within patterns of land changes for both zones. The transition from cropland to built-up was systematically targeted and stationary while the transition from woodland to built-up was systematically avoiding transition in both zones. Built-up tended to target aquaculture for the second and third time intervals in zone A but avoid Aquaculture for all intervals in zone B. Land change in zone A was more significant than that in zone B during the second and third time intervals at three-level intensity. The application of intensity analysis can enhance our understanding of the patterns and processes in land changes and suitable land development plans in the Quanzhou bay area. This type of investigation is useful to provide information for developing sound land use policy to achieve urban sustainability in similar coastal areas.