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Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017

France is one of Europe’s foremost poultry producers and the world’s fifth largest producer of poultry meat. In November 2016, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N8 emerged in poultry in the country. As of 23 March 2017, a total of 484 confirmed outbreaks were reported, with co...

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Autores principales: Guinat, Claire, Nicolas, Gaëlle, Vergne, Timothée, Bronner, Anne, Durand, Benoit, Courcoul, Aurélie, Gilbert, Marius, Guérin, Jean-Luc, Paul, Mathilde C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29970219
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.26.1700791
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author Guinat, Claire
Nicolas, Gaëlle
Vergne, Timothée
Bronner, Anne
Durand, Benoit
Courcoul, Aurélie
Gilbert, Marius
Guérin, Jean-Luc
Paul, Mathilde C.
author_facet Guinat, Claire
Nicolas, Gaëlle
Vergne, Timothée
Bronner, Anne
Durand, Benoit
Courcoul, Aurélie
Gilbert, Marius
Guérin, Jean-Luc
Paul, Mathilde C.
author_sort Guinat, Claire
collection PubMed
description France is one of Europe’s foremost poultry producers and the world’s fifth largest producer of poultry meat. In November 2016, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N8 emerged in poultry in the country. As of 23 March 2017, a total of 484 confirmed outbreaks were reported, with consequences on animal health and socio-economic impacts for producers. Methods: We examined the spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks that occurred in France between November 2016 and March 2017, using the space–time K-function and space–time permutation model of the scan statistic test. Results: Most outbreaks affected duck flocks in south-west France. A significant space–time interaction of outbreaks was present at the beginning of the epidemic within a window of 8 km and 13 days. This interaction disappeared towards the epidemic end. Five spatio-temporal outbreak clusters were identified in the main poultry producing areas, moving sequentially from east to west. The average spread rate of the epidemic front wave was estimated to be 5.5 km/week. It increased from February 2017 and was negatively associated with the duck holding density. Conclusion: HPAI-H5N8 infections varied over time and space in France. Intense transmission events occurred at the early stages of the epidemic, followed by long-range jumps in the disease spread towards its end. Findings support strict control strategies in poultry production as well as the maintenance of high biosecurity standards for poultry holdings. Factors and mechanisms driving HPAI spread need to be further investigated.
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spelling pubmed-60308752018-08-03 Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017 Guinat, Claire Nicolas, Gaëlle Vergne, Timothée Bronner, Anne Durand, Benoit Courcoul, Aurélie Gilbert, Marius Guérin, Jean-Luc Paul, Mathilde C. Euro Surveill Research Article France is one of Europe’s foremost poultry producers and the world’s fifth largest producer of poultry meat. In November 2016, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N8 emerged in poultry in the country. As of 23 March 2017, a total of 484 confirmed outbreaks were reported, with consequences on animal health and socio-economic impacts for producers. Methods: We examined the spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks that occurred in France between November 2016 and March 2017, using the space–time K-function and space–time permutation model of the scan statistic test. Results: Most outbreaks affected duck flocks in south-west France. A significant space–time interaction of outbreaks was present at the beginning of the epidemic within a window of 8 km and 13 days. This interaction disappeared towards the epidemic end. Five spatio-temporal outbreak clusters were identified in the main poultry producing areas, moving sequentially from east to west. The average spread rate of the epidemic front wave was estimated to be 5.5 km/week. It increased from February 2017 and was negatively associated with the duck holding density. Conclusion: HPAI-H5N8 infections varied over time and space in France. Intense transmission events occurred at the early stages of the epidemic, followed by long-range jumps in the disease spread towards its end. Findings support strict control strategies in poultry production as well as the maintenance of high biosecurity standards for poultry holdings. Factors and mechanisms driving HPAI spread need to be further investigated. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2018-06-28 /pmc/articles/PMC6030875/ /pubmed/29970219 http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.26.1700791 Text en This article is copyright of The Authors, 2018. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Research Article
Guinat, Claire
Nicolas, Gaëlle
Vergne, Timothée
Bronner, Anne
Durand, Benoit
Courcoul, Aurélie
Gilbert, Marius
Guérin, Jean-Luc
Paul, Mathilde C.
Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017
title Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017
title_full Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017
title_fullStr Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017
title_full_unstemmed Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017
title_short Spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N8 spread, France, 2016 to 2017
title_sort spatio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype h5n8 spread, france, 2016 to 2017
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6030875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29970219
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.26.1700791
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