Causes and predictors of mortality in Asian Indians with and without diabetes–10 year follow-up of the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES - 150)

BACKGROUND: The incidence and prevalence of diabetes is increasing worldwide and it is the fifth leading cause of mortality accounting for over 3.8 million deaths annually. Despite the enormity of the diabetes-related health burdens, very few studies have evaluated the factors associated with mortality among people with diabetes in India. We sought to study the causes and predictors of mortality among urban Asian Indians with and without diabetes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Of 2273 adults (27,850 person-years of follow-up) from the 10-year follow-up of the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES), the cause of death could be ascertained in 552 individuals out of the 671 who had died (response rate 82.3%). Verbal autopsy was obtained from the family members of the deceased and this was adjudicated by trained physicians. The age-standardized mortality rate was 28.2 (95%CI 25.9–30.6) per 100,000 population. Mortality rates were significantly higher in individuals with diabetes compared to those without [27.9(95% CI 25.5–30.6) vs. 8.0 (6.6–9.9) per 1000 person years]. Compared to individuals of normal body mass index, underweight individuals had higher risk of mortality (Hazard ratio 1.49; 95% CI 1.11–2.0), whereas overweight and obese individuals did not show a higher risk. The population-attributable risk for all-cause mortality in the entire study cohort was highest for ischemic heart disease and diabetes. The excess mortality attributable to diabetes was highest in the age group of 51 to 70 years, and was mostly accounted for by renal disease (Rate ratio 5.68, 95%CI 2.43–6.23), ischemic heart disease (4.23,2.78–6.67), and cerebrovascular disease (4.00,1.87–9.81). CONCLUSION: Underweight (but not overweight or obesity) was strongly associated with mortality in this Asian Indian population. Ischemic heart disease and diabetes contributed the most to risk for all cause mortality. Excess mortality due to diabetes was higher in relatively younger individuals and was mostly accounted for by renal disease.