Predicting outcomes of acute low back pain patients in emergency department: A prospective observational cohort study

Low back pain (LBP) is a common complaint among patients presenting to emergency department (ED) in Singapore. The STarT Back Screening Tool (SBT) was recently developed and validated for triage of LBP patients in primary care settings. This study aimed to investigate whether the SBT could provide prognostic information for long-term outcomes of acute LBP patients visiting the ED, who might benefit from appropriate and timely management at an earlier stage. Data were collected in a prospective observational cohort study from 177 patients who consulted emergency physicians for acute LBP and completed 6-month follow-up. Patients were administered the SBT and assessed at baseline. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 weeks and 6 months. A multiple linear regression model incorporating SBT total score, age, employment status, LBP history, and 6-week pain score was constructed to predict 6-month pain score. In the model, SBT total score and 6-week pain score were significantly associated with 6-month pain score (P < .05) with respective coefficients of 0.125 and 0.500. The model explained 40.1% of the variance for 6-month pain score. This study demonstrated that the multiple linear regression model showed predictive performance in determining long-term outcomes for acute LBP patients presenting to the ED.