Impact of 3-year changes in lipid parameters and their ratios on incident type 2 diabetes: Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND: To examine the impact of changes in all lipid measures including total cholesterol (TC), log-transformed triglycerides (Ln-TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C and Ln TG/HDL-C, over an approximate 3 year duration, on incident type 2 diabetes (T2DM). METHODS: A total of 5474 participants, mean age 41.3 years, without prevalent diabetes at baseline or the first follow-up were entered into the study. The association of lipid changes between baseline and the first follow-up i.e., between 1999–2002 and 2002–2005 for those entered in the first phase (n = 4406) and between 2002–2005 and 2005–2008 for participants recruited in the second phase (n = 1068) with incident T2DM over the follow-up period was assessed, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.9 years after the second lipid measurements, 577 incident cases of T2DM occurred. After adjustment for a wide variety of confounders and body mass index (BMI) change, each 1-SD increase in TC, Ln-TG, HDL-C, LDL-C, non-HDL-C, Ln-TG/HDL-C and TC/HDL-C was associated with 12, 14, 0.86, 12, 16, 15 and 13% risk for T2DM, respectively (all p-values < 0.05). However, after further adjustment for fasting plasma glucose (FPG) change, the risk disappeared for all lipid measures, excluding HDL-C [hazard ratio (HR): 0.84 (0.76–0.93)], Ln-TG/HDL-C [1.14 (1.04–1.25)] and TC/HDL-C [1.12 (1.04–1.21)]. CONCLUSIONS: Three year changes in all lipid parameters, after adjustment for known risk factors of T2DM and BMI changes, were associated with incident T2DM. The independent risk of HDL-C and its ratios remained even after adjustment for FPG changes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12986-018-0287-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.