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Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate

Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe in April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential to cause significant damages to agricultural yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown to be one of the factors that tri...

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Autores principales: Unterberger, Christian, Brunner, Lukas, Nabernegg, Stefan, Steininger, Karl W., Steiner, Andrea K., Stabentheiner, Edith, Monschein, Stephan, Truhetz, Heimo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6059414/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30044808
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200201
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author Unterberger, Christian
Brunner, Lukas
Nabernegg, Stefan
Steininger, Karl W.
Steiner, Andrea K.
Stabentheiner, Edith
Monschein, Stephan
Truhetz, Heimo
author_facet Unterberger, Christian
Brunner, Lukas
Nabernegg, Stefan
Steininger, Karl W.
Steiner, Andrea K.
Stabentheiner, Edith
Monschein, Stephan
Truhetz, Heimo
author_sort Unterberger, Christian
collection PubMed
description Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe in April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential to cause significant damages to agricultural yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown to be one of the factors that trigger cold spells in spring. While current knowledge does not allow for drawing conclusions as to any change in future frequency and duration of blocking episodes due to climate change, the combination of their stable occurrence with the biological system under a warming trend can lead to economic damage increases. To evaluate future frost risk for apple producers in south-eastern Styria, we combine a phenological sequential model with highly resolved climate projections for Austria. Our model projects a mean advance of blooming of –1.6 ± 0.9 days per decade, shifting the bloom onset towards early April by the end of the 21st century. Our findings indicate that overall frost risk for apple cultures will remain in a warmer climate and potentially even increase due to a stronger connection between blocking and cold spells in early spring that can be identified from observational data. To prospectively deal with frost risk, measures are needed that either stabilize crop yields or ensure farmers’ income by other means. We identify appropriate adaptation measures and relate their costs to the potential frost risk increase. Even if applied successfully, the costs of these measures in combination with future residual damages represent additional climate change related costs.
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spelling pubmed-60594142018-08-06 Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate Unterberger, Christian Brunner, Lukas Nabernegg, Stefan Steininger, Karl W. Steiner, Andrea K. Stabentheiner, Edith Monschein, Stephan Truhetz, Heimo PLoS One Research Article Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe in April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential to cause significant damages to agricultural yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown to be one of the factors that trigger cold spells in spring. While current knowledge does not allow for drawing conclusions as to any change in future frequency and duration of blocking episodes due to climate change, the combination of their stable occurrence with the biological system under a warming trend can lead to economic damage increases. To evaluate future frost risk for apple producers in south-eastern Styria, we combine a phenological sequential model with highly resolved climate projections for Austria. Our model projects a mean advance of blooming of –1.6 ± 0.9 days per decade, shifting the bloom onset towards early April by the end of the 21st century. Our findings indicate that overall frost risk for apple cultures will remain in a warmer climate and potentially even increase due to a stronger connection between blocking and cold spells in early spring that can be identified from observational data. To prospectively deal with frost risk, measures are needed that either stabilize crop yields or ensure farmers’ income by other means. We identify appropriate adaptation measures and relate their costs to the potential frost risk increase. Even if applied successfully, the costs of these measures in combination with future residual damages represent additional climate change related costs. Public Library of Science 2018-07-25 /pmc/articles/PMC6059414/ /pubmed/30044808 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200201 Text en © 2018 Unterberger et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Unterberger, Christian
Brunner, Lukas
Nabernegg, Stefan
Steininger, Karl W.
Steiner, Andrea K.
Stabentheiner, Edith
Monschein, Stephan
Truhetz, Heimo
Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate
title Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate
title_full Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate
title_fullStr Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate
title_full_unstemmed Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate
title_short Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate
title_sort spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6059414/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30044808
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200201
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