Body mass index, abdominal fatness, and the risk of sudden cardiac death: a systematic review and dose–response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Although overweight and obesity are established risk factors for some types of heart disease including ischemic heart disease, heart failure and atrial fibrillation, less is known about the association between adiposity and sudden cardiac death. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies to clarify the association between adiposity and risk of sudden cardiac death. PubMed and Embase databases were searched up to July 20th 2017. Summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random effects models. The summary RR was 1.16 (95% CI 1.05–1.28, I(2) = 68%, n = 14) per 5 unit increment in BMI, and 1.82 (95% CI 1.61–2.07, I(2) = 0%, n = 3) per 0.1 unit increase in waist-to-hip ratio, and 1.03 (95% CI 0.93–1.15, I(2) = 0%, n = 2) per 10 cm increase in waist circumference. The heterogeneity in the analysis of BMI and sudden cardiac death persisted across most subgroup analyses. The association was stronger among studies with longer follow-up compared to short follow-up and was observed in the European and American studies, but not in the Asian studies. There was a J-shaped association between BMI and sudden cardiac death and the lowest risk was observed in the normal weight range, however, the increased risk with a low BMI was attenuated among studies with a longer duration of follow-up. This meta-analysis suggest an increased risk of sudden cardiac death with increasing BMI and waist-to-hip ratio, however, further studies with stratification for smoking status are needed of waist circumference, weight changes and adiposity at younger ages. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10654-017-0353-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.