“Last Supper” Predicts Greater Weight Loss Early in Obesity Treatment, but Not Enough to Offset Initial Gains

Background: Many participants experience clinically significant fluctuations in weight before beginning a behavioral weight loss program. Pre-treatment weight gain, often referred to as the “last supper” effect, may limit total weight loss from the time of the pre-treatment screening visit and could be an indicator that a participant will respond poorly to behavioral intervention. Methods: Data were from the weight loss phase of a two-phase weight loss maintenance trial, in which 178 participants with obesity (screening BMI = 40.5 ± 6.0 kg/m(2), 87.6% female; 71.3% black) were provided with a 14 week lifestyle intervention that included a meal replacement diet. Participants were categorized as having gained >1.15%, remained weight stable, or lost >1.15% of initial weight between the pre-treatment screening visit and the first treatment session (48.7 ± 29.4 days). We first examined whether the weight change groups differed in baseline eating characteristics (e.g., emotional eating, self-regulation, craving frequency) using one-way ANCOVAs. Linear mixed models were then used to compare weight change groups on total weight loss from the screening visit to week 14 and in-treatment weight loss from weeks 1 to 14. Results: Nearly half of the sample (48.9%) gained >1.15% of initial weight during the pre-treatment period (+2.5 ± 1.2%); 41.0% remained weight stable (+0.2 ± 0.6%); and 10.1% lost >1.15% of initial weight (-2.2 ± 0.9%). There were no significant differences between the groups in baseline eating characteristics. As measured from the screening weight, the weight-gain group had a lower total loss of 6.8%, compared to 7.8% in the weight stable group (p = 0.02) and 9.0% in the weight-loss group (p = 0.003). The weight-gain group lost more weight in the first 4 weeks of treatment, but in-treatment losses did not differ among the groups at week 14. Conclusion: Pre-treatment weight gain was not an indicator of a poor response to a behavioral weight loss intervention and was associated with greater weight loss early in treatment. However, weight gain during the pre-treatment period may limit the total weight loss that participants achieve from the time that they first enroll in a weight loss program.