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Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing

Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we sho...

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Autores principales: Hamilton, D. S., Hantson, S., Scott, C. E., Kaplan, J. O., Pringle, K. J., Nieradzik, L. P., Rap, A., Folberth, G. A., Spracklen, D. V., Carslaw, K. S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6085333/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30093678
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9
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author Hamilton, D. S.
Hantson, S.
Scott, C. E.
Kaplan, J. O.
Pringle, K. J.
Nieradzik, L. P.
Rap, A.
Folberth, G. A.
Spracklen, D. V.
Carslaw, K. S.
author_facet Hamilton, D. S.
Hantson, S.
Scott, C. E.
Kaplan, J. O.
Pringle, K. J.
Nieradzik, L. P.
Rap, A.
Folberth, G. A.
Spracklen, D. V.
Carslaw, K. S.
author_sort Hamilton, D. S.
collection PubMed
description Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we show that revised assumptions about pre-industrial fire activity result in significantly increased aerosol concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Revised global model simulations predict a 35% reduction in the calculated global mean cloud albedo forcing over the Industrial Era (1750–2000 CE) compared to estimates using emissions data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An estimated upper limit to pre-industrial fire emissions results in a much greater (91%) reduction in forcing. When compared to 26 other uncertain parameters or inputs in our model, pre-industrial fire emissions are by far the single largest source of uncertainty in pre-industrial aerosol concentrations, and hence in our understanding of the magnitude of the historical radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions.
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spelling pubmed-60853332018-08-13 Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing Hamilton, D. S. Hantson, S. Scott, C. E. Kaplan, J. O. Pringle, K. J. Nieradzik, L. P. Rap, A. Folberth, G. A. Spracklen, D. V. Carslaw, K. S. Nat Commun Article Uncertainty in pre-industrial natural aerosol emissions is a major component of the overall uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate. Improved characterisation of natural emissions and their radiative effects can therefore increase the accuracy of global climate model projections. Here we show that revised assumptions about pre-industrial fire activity result in significantly increased aerosol concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Revised global model simulations predict a 35% reduction in the calculated global mean cloud albedo forcing over the Industrial Era (1750–2000 CE) compared to estimates using emissions data from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An estimated upper limit to pre-industrial fire emissions results in a much greater (91%) reduction in forcing. When compared to 26 other uncertain parameters or inputs in our model, pre-industrial fire emissions are by far the single largest source of uncertainty in pre-industrial aerosol concentrations, and hence in our understanding of the magnitude of the historical radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-08-09 /pmc/articles/PMC6085333/ /pubmed/30093678 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Hamilton, D. S.
Hantson, S.
Scott, C. E.
Kaplan, J. O.
Pringle, K. J.
Nieradzik, L. P.
Rap, A.
Folberth, G. A.
Spracklen, D. V.
Carslaw, K. S.
Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
title Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
title_full Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
title_fullStr Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
title_full_unstemmed Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
title_short Reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
title_sort reassessment of pre-industrial fire emissions strongly affects anthropogenic aerosol forcing
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6085333/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30093678
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05592-9
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