Relationship between antimicrobial-resistance programs and antibiotic dispensing for upper respiratory tract infection: An analysis of Australian data between 2004 and 2015

OBJECTIVE: NPS MedicineWise aims to ensure that medicines are prescribed and used in a manner consistent with current evidence-based best practice. A series of nationwide educational and advertising interventions for general practitioners and consumers were implemented in Australia between 2009 and 2015 with the aim of reducing antibiotic prescriptions for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs). The work described in this paper quantifies the change in antibiotic dispensing following these interventions. METHODS: Antibiotic dispensing data between 2004 and 2015 were obtained from a national claims database. A Bayesian structural time series model was used to forecast a series of antibiotic dispensing volumes expected to have occurred if the interventions had not taken place. These were compared with the volumes that were actually observed to estimate the intervention effect. RESULTS: On average, 126,536 fewer antibiotics were dispensed each month since the intervention programs began in 2009 (95% Bayesian credible interval = 71,580–181,490). This change represents a 14% total reduction in dispensed scripts after the series of intervention programs began in 2009. CONCLUSIONS: Continual educational intervention programs that emphasise the judicious use of antibiotics may effectively reduce inappropriate prescribing of antibiotics for the treatment of URTIs at a national level.