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Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations

Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are us...

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Autores principales: Sato, Kazutoshi, Inoue, Jun, Yamazaki, Akira, Kim, Joo-Hong, Makshtas, Alexander, Kustov, Vasilli, Maturilli, Marion, Dethloff, Klaus
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6092335/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30108302
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4
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author Sato, Kazutoshi
Inoue, Jun
Yamazaki, Akira
Kim, Joo-Hong
Makshtas, Alexander
Kustov, Vasilli
Maturilli, Marion
Dethloff, Klaus
author_facet Sato, Kazutoshi
Inoue, Jun
Yamazaki, Akira
Kim, Joo-Hong
Makshtas, Alexander
Kustov, Vasilli
Maturilli, Marion
Dethloff, Klaus
author_sort Sato, Kazutoshi
collection PubMed
description Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are usually confined to high latitudes and they are difficult to realize at mid-latitudes because of the limited scale of localised tropopause polar vortices. However, in certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer; thus, additional Arctic observations might improve analysis validity and forecast skill for summer atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere. This study examined such cases that occurred in 2016 by focusing on the prediction of the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because TCs are representative of extreme weather in summer. The predictabilities of three TCs were found influenced by additional Arctic observations. Comparisons with ensemble reanalysis data revealed that large errors propagate from the data-sparse Arctic into the mid-latitudes, together with high-potential-vorticity air. Ensemble forecast experiments with different reanalysis data confirmed that additional Arctic observations sometimes improve the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere circulations.
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spelling pubmed-60923352018-08-20 Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations Sato, Kazutoshi Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Kim, Joo-Hong Makshtas, Alexander Kustov, Vasilli Maturilli, Marion Dethloff, Klaus Sci Rep Article Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are usually confined to high latitudes and they are difficult to realize at mid-latitudes because of the limited scale of localised tropopause polar vortices. However, in certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer; thus, additional Arctic observations might improve analysis validity and forecast skill for summer atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere. This study examined such cases that occurred in 2016 by focusing on the prediction of the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because TCs are representative of extreme weather in summer. The predictabilities of three TCs were found influenced by additional Arctic observations. Comparisons with ensemble reanalysis data revealed that large errors propagate from the data-sparse Arctic into the mid-latitudes, together with high-potential-vorticity air. Ensemble forecast experiments with different reanalysis data confirmed that additional Arctic observations sometimes improve the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere circulations. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-08-14 /pmc/articles/PMC6092335/ /pubmed/30108302 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Sato, Kazutoshi
Inoue, Jun
Yamazaki, Akira
Kim, Joo-Hong
Makshtas, Alexander
Kustov, Vasilli
Maturilli, Marion
Dethloff, Klaus
Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations
title Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations
title_full Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations
title_fullStr Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations
title_full_unstemmed Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations
title_short Impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra Arctic observations
title_sort impact on predictability of tropical and mid-latitude cyclones by extra arctic observations
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6092335/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30108302
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30594-4
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