A risk score model of 30-day readmission in ulcerative colitis after colectomy or proctectomy

INTRODUCTION: The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services established 30-day readmission rate as a key metric in measuring high-value, cost-conscious care; therefore, our aim is to develop a risk score for 30-day readmission in ulcerative colitis (UC) patients undergoing colectomy or proctectomy. METHODS: This study used data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) participant user file (2011–2015). Patients with UC undergoing colectomy or proctectomy were identified using ICD-9, 10, and CPT codes. Stepwise multivariate analyses were used to determine risk factors associated with readmission including pre-operative conditions, laboratory results, operative variables, and post-operative complications. For readmission risk score assessment, a weighted logistic regression model was built and validated using ACS NSQIP 2011–2014 and 2015 data, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 4797 patients were included with 963 (20%) patients readmitted within 30 days. Potentially modifiable risk factors included deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, renal insufficiency, wound infection, urinary tract infection, sepsis/septic shock, and pre-existing congestive heart failure. Ten percent of patients with a risk score between 0 and 9 were readmitted, 18.5% with a score between 10 and 19, 52.2% with a score between 20 and 29, and 59.6% in patients with a risk score >29. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple potentially preventable risk factors are associated with 30-day readmission following colectomy or proctectomy in UC patients. Higher risk scores are associated with increased risk of unplanned readmission.