Time trends and future prediction of coal worker’s pneumoconiosis in opencast coal mine in China based on the APC model

BACKGROUND: The opencast coal mine is a specific mine differing from the underground mine. There are differences in the way into the ore body, the organization of production, transport technology and other aspects. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of CWP among ex-dust miners in opencast coal mines and estimate the incidence trend of CWP by APC model in the future. METHODS: All opencast miners who had been exposed to dust for at least 1 year in opencast mines were enrolled in this study. The database included demographic details, occupational history records with the date of dust exposure, physical examination records and pneumoconiosis diagnosis records. An age-period-cohort (APC) model has been carried out in order to explore the effects of the age, period and cohort on the prevalence of CWP among ex-dust opencast miners. RESULTS: 8191 opencast miners were enrolled in the study, including 259 miners with CWP and 7932 miners without CWP. The incidence density of CWP would have an increasing trend in opencast mines from 2005 to 2024. The number of possible CWP patients predicted in this period was approximately 492. Of them, 275 miners could have suffered from CWP in 2005–2014 and 217 miners would suffer from CWP in 2015–2024 among the ex-dust opencast miners. CONCLUSIONS: The APC model had a goodness of fit in predicting the incidence trend of CWP in opencast coal mines. By this model, we predicted that 492 opencast miners could be diagnosed as CWP from 2005 to 2024. Therefore ex-dust opencast miners cannot be ignored and they should have regular physical examinations and detection for CWP. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5937-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.