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Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018

The castor bean tick, Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Ixodida: Ixodidae), is the principal vector of pathogens causing tick-borne encephalitis or Lyme borreliosis in Europe. It is therefore of general interest to make an estimate of the density of I. ricinus for the whole year at the beginning of the tick seas...

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Autores principales: Brugger, Katharina, Walter, Melanie, Chitimia-Dobler, Lidia, Dobler, Gerhard, Rubel, Franz
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6097749/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29846854
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10493-018-0267-6
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author Brugger, Katharina
Walter, Melanie
Chitimia-Dobler, Lidia
Dobler, Gerhard
Rubel, Franz
author_facet Brugger, Katharina
Walter, Melanie
Chitimia-Dobler, Lidia
Dobler, Gerhard
Rubel, Franz
author_sort Brugger, Katharina
collection PubMed
description The castor bean tick, Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Ixodida: Ixodidae), is the principal vector of pathogens causing tick-borne encephalitis or Lyme borreliosis in Europe. It is therefore of general interest to make an estimate of the density of I. ricinus for the whole year at the beginning of the tick season. There are two necessary conditions for making a successful prediction: a long homogeneous time series of observed tick density and a clear biological relationship between environmental predictors and tick density. A 9-year time series covering the period 2009–2017 of nymphal I. ricinus flagged at monthly intervals in southern Germany has been used. With the hypothesis that I. ricinus density is triggered by the fructification of the European beech 2 years before, the mean annual temperature of the previous year, and the current mean winter temperature (December–February), a forecast of the annual nymphal tick density has been made. Therefore, a Poisson regression model was generated resulting in an explained variance of 93.4% and an error of [Formula: see text] ticks per [Formula: see text] (annual [Formula: see text] collected ticks/[Formula: see text] ). An independent verification of the forecast for the year 2017 resulted in 187 predicted versus 180 observed nymphs per [Formula: see text] . For the year 2018 a relatively high number of 443 questing I. ricinus nymphs per [Formula: see text] is forecasted, i.e., a “good” tick year.
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spelling pubmed-60977492018-08-24 Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018 Brugger, Katharina Walter, Melanie Chitimia-Dobler, Lidia Dobler, Gerhard Rubel, Franz Exp Appl Acarol Article The castor bean tick, Ixodes ricinus (L.) (Ixodida: Ixodidae), is the principal vector of pathogens causing tick-borne encephalitis or Lyme borreliosis in Europe. It is therefore of general interest to make an estimate of the density of I. ricinus for the whole year at the beginning of the tick season. There are two necessary conditions for making a successful prediction: a long homogeneous time series of observed tick density and a clear biological relationship between environmental predictors and tick density. A 9-year time series covering the period 2009–2017 of nymphal I. ricinus flagged at monthly intervals in southern Germany has been used. With the hypothesis that I. ricinus density is triggered by the fructification of the European beech 2 years before, the mean annual temperature of the previous year, and the current mean winter temperature (December–February), a forecast of the annual nymphal tick density has been made. Therefore, a Poisson regression model was generated resulting in an explained variance of 93.4% and an error of [Formula: see text] ticks per [Formula: see text] (annual [Formula: see text] collected ticks/[Formula: see text] ). An independent verification of the forecast for the year 2017 resulted in 187 predicted versus 180 observed nymphs per [Formula: see text] . For the year 2018 a relatively high number of 443 questing I. ricinus nymphs per [Formula: see text] is forecasted, i.e., a “good” tick year. Springer International Publishing 2018-05-30 2018 /pmc/articles/PMC6097749/ /pubmed/29846854 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10493-018-0267-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Article
Brugger, Katharina
Walter, Melanie
Chitimia-Dobler, Lidia
Dobler, Gerhard
Rubel, Franz
Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018
title Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018
title_full Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018
title_fullStr Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018
title_short Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018
title_sort forecasting next season’s ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern germany 2018
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6097749/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29846854
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10493-018-0267-6
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