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Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States
Although forecasts and other mathematical models have the potential to play an important role in mitigating the impact of infectious disease outbreaks, the extent to which these tools are used in public health decision making in the United States is unclear. Throughout 2015, we invited public health...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6098102/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30120267 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30378-w |
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author | Doms, Colin Kramer, Sarah C. Shaman, Jeffrey |
author_facet | Doms, Colin Kramer, Sarah C. Shaman, Jeffrey |
author_sort | Doms, Colin |
collection | PubMed |
description | Although forecasts and other mathematical models have the potential to play an important role in mitigating the impact of infectious disease outbreaks, the extent to which these tools are used in public health decision making in the United States is unclear. Throughout 2015, we invited public health practitioners belonging to three national public health organizations to complete a cross-sectional survey containing questions on model awareness, model use, and communication with modelers. Of 39 respondents, 46.15% used models in their work, and 20.51% reported direct communication with those who create models. Over half (64.10%) were aware that influenza forecasts exist. The need for improved communication between practitioners and modelers was overwhelmingly endorsed, with over 50% of participants indicating the need for models more relevant to public health questions, increased frequency of telecommunication, and more plain language in discussing models. Model use for public health decision making must be improved if models are to reach their full potential as public health tools. Increased quality and frequency of communication between practitioners and modelers could be particularly useful in achieving this goal. It is important that improvements be made now, rather than waiting for the next public health crisis to occur. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6098102 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-60981022018-08-23 Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States Doms, Colin Kramer, Sarah C. Shaman, Jeffrey Sci Rep Article Although forecasts and other mathematical models have the potential to play an important role in mitigating the impact of infectious disease outbreaks, the extent to which these tools are used in public health decision making in the United States is unclear. Throughout 2015, we invited public health practitioners belonging to three national public health organizations to complete a cross-sectional survey containing questions on model awareness, model use, and communication with modelers. Of 39 respondents, 46.15% used models in their work, and 20.51% reported direct communication with those who create models. Over half (64.10%) were aware that influenza forecasts exist. The need for improved communication between practitioners and modelers was overwhelmingly endorsed, with over 50% of participants indicating the need for models more relevant to public health questions, increased frequency of telecommunication, and more plain language in discussing models. Model use for public health decision making must be improved if models are to reach their full potential as public health tools. Increased quality and frequency of communication between practitioners and modelers could be particularly useful in achieving this goal. It is important that improvements be made now, rather than waiting for the next public health crisis to occur. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-08-17 /pmc/articles/PMC6098102/ /pubmed/30120267 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30378-w Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Doms, Colin Kramer, Sarah C. Shaman, Jeffrey Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States |
title | Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States |
title_full | Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States |
title_fullStr | Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States |
title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States |
title_short | Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States |
title_sort | assessing the use of influenza forecasts and epidemiological modeling in public health decision making in the united states |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6098102/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30120267 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30378-w |
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