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A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPR...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6099864/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30054316 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711646115 |
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author | Fournié, Guillaume Waret-Szkuta, Agnès Camacho, Anton Yigezu, Laike M. Pfeiffer, Dirk U. Roger, François |
author_facet | Fournié, Guillaume Waret-Szkuta, Agnès Camacho, Anton Yigezu, Laike M. Pfeiffer, Dirk U. Roger, François |
author_sort | Fournié, Guillaume |
collection | PubMed |
description | Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6099864 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-60998642018-08-21 A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia Fournié, Guillaume Waret-Szkuta, Agnès Camacho, Anton Yigezu, Laike M. Pfeiffer, Dirk U. Roger, François Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Biological Sciences Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication. National Academy of Sciences 2018-08-14 2018-07-27 /pmc/articles/PMC6099864/ /pubmed/30054316 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711646115 Text en Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Biological Sciences Fournié, Guillaume Waret-Szkuta, Agnès Camacho, Anton Yigezu, Laike M. Pfeiffer, Dirk U. Roger, François A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia |
title | A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia |
title_full | A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia |
title_fullStr | A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia |
title_full_unstemmed | A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia |
title_short | A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia |
title_sort | dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in ethiopia |
topic | Biological Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6099864/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30054316 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711646115 |
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