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Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range
Climate change will affect stream systems in numerous ways over the coming century. Globally, streams are expected to experience changes in temperature and flow regime. Previous work has indicated that these changes will likely affect fish distributions, but little work has been conducted examining...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6101403/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30125314 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202737 |
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author | Middaugh, Christopher R. Magoulick, Daniel D. |
author_facet | Middaugh, Christopher R. Magoulick, Daniel D. |
author_sort | Middaugh, Christopher R. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Climate change will affect stream systems in numerous ways over the coming century. Globally, streams are expected to experience changes in temperature and flow regime. Previous work has indicated that these changes will likely affect fish distributions, but little work has been conducted examining population level effects of climate change on warmwater fish at the warmest portion of their range. We model several potential climate change-related stressors and the resulting effects on smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu populations in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas, USA, located near the southern extent of smallmouth bass range. Smallmouth bass are a popular recreational fish in the region and angler harvest likely contributes substantially to annual mortality. We created a simulation model parameterized with data collected from the Buffalo National River to evaluate the relative importance of climate stressors and angler harvest on smallmouth bass populations. Our simulations suggest that increases in springtime temperature and reductions in river discharge during the spawning period could increase recruitment, resulting in increases in adult abundance (8% higher). However, when increased flooding and drought probabilities are considered, our model indicates the Buffalo National River could experience large reductions in adult smallmouth bass abundance (≥50% decline) and increased probability of extinction compared to present levels. Simulations showed that harvest reduction could be a viable strategy to reduce the negative effects of climate change, but that even with complete closure of harvest, smallmouth bass population levels would still be well below present abundance (46% lower than present). Efforts to reduce flooding and drought effects related to climate change in the Buffalo National River could help offset the predicted reduction in the smallmouth bass population. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6101403 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-61014032018-08-30 Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range Middaugh, Christopher R. Magoulick, Daniel D. PLoS One Research Article Climate change will affect stream systems in numerous ways over the coming century. Globally, streams are expected to experience changes in temperature and flow regime. Previous work has indicated that these changes will likely affect fish distributions, but little work has been conducted examining population level effects of climate change on warmwater fish at the warmest portion of their range. We model several potential climate change-related stressors and the resulting effects on smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu populations in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas, USA, located near the southern extent of smallmouth bass range. Smallmouth bass are a popular recreational fish in the region and angler harvest likely contributes substantially to annual mortality. We created a simulation model parameterized with data collected from the Buffalo National River to evaluate the relative importance of climate stressors and angler harvest on smallmouth bass populations. Our simulations suggest that increases in springtime temperature and reductions in river discharge during the spawning period could increase recruitment, resulting in increases in adult abundance (8% higher). However, when increased flooding and drought probabilities are considered, our model indicates the Buffalo National River could experience large reductions in adult smallmouth bass abundance (≥50% decline) and increased probability of extinction compared to present levels. Simulations showed that harvest reduction could be a viable strategy to reduce the negative effects of climate change, but that even with complete closure of harvest, smallmouth bass population levels would still be well below present abundance (46% lower than present). Efforts to reduce flooding and drought effects related to climate change in the Buffalo National River could help offset the predicted reduction in the smallmouth bass population. Public Library of Science 2018-08-20 /pmc/articles/PMC6101403/ /pubmed/30125314 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202737 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Middaugh, Christopher R. Magoulick, Daniel D. Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range |
title | Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range |
title_full | Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range |
title_fullStr | Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range |
title_short | Forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range |
title_sort | forecasting effects of angler harvest and climate change on smallmouth bass abundance at the southern edge of their range |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6101403/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30125314 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202737 |
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