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Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment
BACKGROUND: Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated. METHODS: Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays agains...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6107991/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29762672 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiy291 |
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author | Babu, Tara M Perera, Ranawaka A P M Wu, Joseph T Fitzgerald, Theresa Nolan, Carolyn Cowling, Benjamin J Krauss, Scott Treanor, John J Peiris, Malik |
author_facet | Babu, Tara M Perera, Ranawaka A P M Wu, Joseph T Fitzgerald, Theresa Nolan, Carolyn Cowling, Benjamin J Krauss, Scott Treanor, John J Peiris, Malik |
author_sort | Babu, Tara M |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated. METHODS: Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled. RESULTS: One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%–20%. A basic reproduction number (R(0)) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Population immunity to H2 viruses is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus. An H2N2 pandemic would have lower impact in those born before 1968. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6107991 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Oxford University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-61079912019-08-24 Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment Babu, Tara M Perera, Ranawaka A P M Wu, Joseph T Fitzgerald, Theresa Nolan, Carolyn Cowling, Benjamin J Krauss, Scott Treanor, John J Peiris, Malik J Infect Dis Major Articles and Brief Reports BACKGROUND: Influenza A pandemics cause significant mortality and morbidity. H2N2 viruses have caused a prior pandemic, and are circulating in avian reservoirs. The age-related frequency of current population immunity to H2 viruses was evaluated. METHODS: Hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) assays against historical human and recent avian influenza A(H2N2) viruses were performed across age groups in Rochester, New York, and Hong Kong, China. The impact of existing cross-reactive HAI immunity on the effective reproduction number was modeled. RESULTS: One hundred fifty individual sera from Rochester and 295 from Hong Kong were included. Eighty-five percent of patients born in Rochester and Hong Kong before 1968 had HAI titers ≥1:40 against A/Singapore/1/57, and >50% had titers ≥1:40 against A/Berkeley/1/68. The frequency of titers ≥1:40 to avian H2N2 A/mallard/England/727/06 and A/mallard/Netherlands/14/07 in subjects born before 1957 was 62% and 24%, respectively. There were no H2 HAI titers >1:40 in individuals born after 1968. These levels of seroprevalence reduce the initial reproduction number of A/Singapore/1/1957 or A/Berkeley/1/68 by 15%–20%. A basic reproduction number (R(0)) of the emerging transmissible virus <1.2 predicts a preventable pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Population immunity to H2 viruses is insufficient to block epidemic spread of H2 virus. An H2N2 pandemic would have lower impact in those born before 1968. Oxford University Press 2018-10-01 2018-05-12 /pmc/articles/PMC6107991/ /pubmed/29762672 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiy291 Text en © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model) This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections. |
spellingShingle | Major Articles and Brief Reports Babu, Tara M Perera, Ranawaka A P M Wu, Joseph T Fitzgerald, Theresa Nolan, Carolyn Cowling, Benjamin J Krauss, Scott Treanor, John J Peiris, Malik Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment |
title | Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment |
title_full | Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment |
title_fullStr | Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment |
title_full_unstemmed | Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment |
title_short | Population Serologic Immunity to Human and Avian H2N2 Viruses in the United States and Hong Kong for Pandemic Risk Assessment |
title_sort | population serologic immunity to human and avian h2n2 viruses in the united states and hong kong for pandemic risk assessment |
topic | Major Articles and Brief Reports |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6107991/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29762672 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiy291 |
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