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Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics
Seasonal waves of influenza display a complex spatiotemporal pattern resulting from the interplay of biological, sociodemographic, and environmental factors. At country level many studies characterized the robust properties of annual epidemics, depicting a typical season. Here we analyzed season-by-...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6109160/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30143689 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30949-x |
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author | Coletti, Pietro Poletto, Chiara Turbelin, Clément Blanchon, Thierry Colizza, Vittoria |
author_facet | Coletti, Pietro Poletto, Chiara Turbelin, Clément Blanchon, Thierry Colizza, Vittoria |
author_sort | Coletti, Pietro |
collection | PubMed |
description | Seasonal waves of influenza display a complex spatiotemporal pattern resulting from the interplay of biological, sociodemographic, and environmental factors. At country level many studies characterized the robust properties of annual epidemics, depicting a typical season. Here we analyzed season-by-season variability, introducing a clustering approach to assess the deviations from typical spreading patterns. The classification is performed on the similarity of temporal configurations of onset and peak times of regional epidemics, based on influenza-like-illness time-series in France from 1984 to 2014. We observed a larger variability in the onset compared to the peak. Two relevant classes of clusters emerge: groups of seasons sharing similar recurrent spreading patterns (clustered seasons) and single seasons displaying unique patterns (monoids). Recurrent patterns exhibit a more pronounced spatial signature than unique patterns. We assessed how seasons shift between these classes from onset to peak depending on epidemiological, environmental, and socio-demographic variables. We found that the spatial dynamics of influenza and its association with commuting, previously observed as a general property of French influenza epidemics, apply only to seasons exhibiting recurrent patterns. The proposed methodology is successful in providing new insights on influenza spread and can be applied to incidence time-series of different countries and different diseases. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6109160 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-61091602018-08-31 Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics Coletti, Pietro Poletto, Chiara Turbelin, Clément Blanchon, Thierry Colizza, Vittoria Sci Rep Article Seasonal waves of influenza display a complex spatiotemporal pattern resulting from the interplay of biological, sociodemographic, and environmental factors. At country level many studies characterized the robust properties of annual epidemics, depicting a typical season. Here we analyzed season-by-season variability, introducing a clustering approach to assess the deviations from typical spreading patterns. The classification is performed on the similarity of temporal configurations of onset and peak times of regional epidemics, based on influenza-like-illness time-series in France from 1984 to 2014. We observed a larger variability in the onset compared to the peak. Two relevant classes of clusters emerge: groups of seasons sharing similar recurrent spreading patterns (clustered seasons) and single seasons displaying unique patterns (monoids). Recurrent patterns exhibit a more pronounced spatial signature than unique patterns. We assessed how seasons shift between these classes from onset to peak depending on epidemiological, environmental, and socio-demographic variables. We found that the spatial dynamics of influenza and its association with commuting, previously observed as a general property of French influenza epidemics, apply only to seasons exhibiting recurrent patterns. The proposed methodology is successful in providing new insights on influenza spread and can be applied to incidence time-series of different countries and different diseases. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-08-24 /pmc/articles/PMC6109160/ /pubmed/30143689 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30949-x Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Coletti, Pietro Poletto, Chiara Turbelin, Clément Blanchon, Thierry Colizza, Vittoria Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics |
title | Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics |
title_full | Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics |
title_fullStr | Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics |
title_full_unstemmed | Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics |
title_short | Shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics |
title_sort | shifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6109160/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30143689 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30949-x |
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