Effects of mesoscale eddies on behavior of an oil spill resulting from an accidental deepwater blowout in the Black Sea: an assessment of the environmental impacts

Because of the environmental sensitivity of the Black Sea, as a semi-enclosed sea, any subsea oil spill can cause destructive impacts on the marine environment and beaches. Employing numerical modeling as a prediction tool is one of the most efficient methods to understand oil spill behavior under various environmental forces. In this regard, a coupled circulation/deepsea oil spill model has been applied to the Black Sea to address the behavior of the oil plume resulting from a representative hypothetical deepwater blowout. With climatological forcing, the hydrodynamic module based on DieCAST ocean circulation model realistically reproduces seasonally-varying circulation from basin-scale dominant structures to meso- and sub-mesoscale elements. The oil spill model utilizes pre-calculated DieCAST thermo-hydrodynamic fields and uses a Lagrangian tracking algorithm for predicting the displacement of a large number of seeded oil droplets, the sum of which forms the rising oil plume resulting from a deepwater blowout. Basic processes affecting the transport, dispersal of oil and its fate in the water column are included in the coupled model. A hypothetical oil source was set at the bottom, at the northwestern edge of the Shatsky Ridge in the area east of the Crimea Peninsula where the oil exploration/development is likely to be planned. Goals of the study are to elucidate the behavior of the subsea oil plume and assess scales of contamination of marine environment and coastlines resulting from potential blowouts. The two 20-day scenarios with the oil released by a hypothetical blowout were examined to reveal combined effects of the basin-scale current, near-shore eddies, and winds on the behavior of the rising oil plume and its spreading on the surface. Special attention is paid to the Caucasian near-shore anticyclonic eddy which is able to trap surfacing oil, detain it and deliver it to shores. The length of contaminated coastlines of vulnerable Crimean and Caucasian coasts are assessed along with amounts of oil beached and deposited.