Observation period for changes in proteinuria and risk prediction of end‐stage renal disease in general population

AIM: Proteinuria is known to be an independent risk factor of end‐stage renal disease (ESRD). But the associations between changes in dipstick proteinuria and the risk of ESRD in the general population and its appropriate observation period to predict incident ESRD are unknown. METHODS: We assessed the changes in dipstick proteinuria in 69 021 participants aged ≥20 years who participated in health check‐ups from 1993 and more than once until 1996 in Okinawa, Japan. Development of ESRD until 2011 was identified using dialysis registry. Cox proportional hazards model and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used. RESULTS: At baseline, proteinuria (±) and ≥(1+) were observed in 2.4% and 1.2% of total subjects. 1.5% of subjects had decreased and 9.4% of subjects had increased their proteinuria level after 2 years. After adjustment for confounding factors, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of ESRD for subjects with proteinuria change ≤ − 1, +1, +2, +3, and +4 level during 2 years compared to subjects with no change were 0.89 (0.43–1.87), 3.18 (2.21–4.60), 8.01 (5.55–11.55), 11.17 (6.59–19.95), and 16.59 (5.95–46.25), respectively. Heterogeneity existed between changes in proteinuria level during 1 or 3 years and the risk of ESRD among baseline proteinuria. Area under the ROC curve (95%CI) to predict ESRD by increase in proteinuria level during 1, 2, and 3 years were 0.650 (0.623–0.679), 0.779 (0.751–0.808), and 0.778 (0.748–0.808), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The changes in dipstick proteinuria were an independent predictor of ESRD in the general population. Changes in proteinuria over 2 years may be appropriate for the risk prediction of ESRD.