Preoperative risk assessment improves biomarker detection for predicting acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND: Although urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) has emerged as a promising biomarker for the early detection of kidney injury, previous studies of adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery have reported only moderate discrimination. The age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score is a preoperative validated risk model with satisfactory accuracy for predicting AKI following cardiac surgery. It remains unknown whether combining preoperative risk assessment through ACEF scores followed by urinary NGAL test in a population of high-risk individuals is an optimal approach with improved predictive performance. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 177 consecutive patients who underwent cardiac surgery were enrolled. Clinical characteristics, prognostic model scores, and outcomes were assessed. Urinary NGAL were examined within 6 hours after cardiac surgery. Patients were stratified according to preoperative ACEF scores, and comparisons were made using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for the prediction of AKI. RESULTS: A total of 45.8% (81/177) of the patients had AKI. As expected, patients with ACEF scores ≥ 1.1 were older and more likely to have class III or IV heart failure. They were also more likely to have diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease. Urinary NGAL alone moderately predicted AKI, with an AUROC of 0.732. Risk stratification by ACEF scores ≥ 1.1 substantially improved the AUROC of urinary NGAL to 0.873 (95% confidence interval, 0.784–0.961; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification by preoperative ACEF scores ≥ 1.1, followed by postoperative urinary NGAL, provides more satisfactory risk discrimination than does urinary NGAL alone for the early detection of AKI after cardiac surgery. Future studies should investigate whether this strategy could improve the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of care in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.