Short-term disability progression in two multiethnic multiple sclerosis centers in the treatment era

BACKGROUND: Short-term disease progression is well documented in clinical trials, but there are limited published data on disease course in real-life practice. METHODS: Patient-derived Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (PMSSS), a disease severity rank score, was computed at each visit for consecutive MS patients attending two large, ethnically diverse MS centers in New York metropolitan area. Disability was assessed via Patient-Determined Disease Steps (PDDS). Clinicians recorded disease subtype and relapse status at each visit, but did not rate disability. PMSSS change from the first to the last visit was calculated for the cohort as a whole and for subgroups of interest. Multivariable regression models were constructed for predicting final PMSSS based on readily available predictor variables collected at the initial visit and relapse history during follow up. RESULTS: A total of 1740 consecutive patients from New York University (n = 1079) and Barnabas (n = 661) MS Care Centers were included. During follow up (mean 2.4 ± 0.82 years, range 1–4 years), mean PDDS score increased from 1.9 ± 2.2 to 2.3 ± 2.2 (p < 0.0001), while PMSSS remained roughly unchanged (initial PMSSS = 3.71 ± 2.73, last PMSSS = 3.81 ± 2.76, paired t test, p = 0.28). The only major predictor of final PMSSS was the initial PMSSS. Demographic variables (age, sex, race) or relapse status did not predict final severity score. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline disability in two MS clinics was much lower than in the reference population from which PMSSS was derived. We observed no discernable slowing of disability accumulation during the short-term follow up in our cohort compared with the reference cohort. Overwhelmingly the most important predictor of final disease severity rank score was the initial disease severity rank score.