Tidal and hydrological periodicities of seismicity reveal new risk scenarios at Campi Flegrei caldera

The volcano-tectonic seismicity occurring at Campi Flegrei caldera during its present unrest phase, started in 2005, is distributed into time-clustered events emerging from a background composed of earthquakes with higher inter-arrival times. Here, we show that clustered seismicity is cyclically recurrent at time scales from semidiurnal to annual, matching tidal and hydrological periodicities. These results suggest that volcano-tectonic seismicity at Campi Flegrei caldera is driven by both variations in the deep magmatic feeding system and exogenous phenomena, as rainfall or global inflation/deflation cycles of the Earth’s crust, controlled by the lunisolar interaction. Consequently, the role of exogenous triggers in the evolution of the present unrest phase should be properly considered in the elaboration of volcanic risk scenarios, presently limited to the study of surface indicators of deep phenomena.