Severely malnourished children with a low weight-for-height have a higher mortality than those with a low mid-upper-arm-circumference: III. Effect of case-load on malnutrition related mortality– policy implications

BACKGROUND: Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is diagnosed when the weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) is <−3Z of the WHO(2006) standards, or a mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) of < 115 mm or there is nutritional oedema. Although there has been a move to eliminate WHZ as a diagnostic criterion we have shown that children with a low WHZ have at least as high a mortality risk as those with a low MUAC. Here we take the estimated case fatality rates and published case-loads to estimate the proportion of total SAM related deaths occurring in children that would be excluded from treatment with a MUAC-only policy. METHODS: The effect of varying case-load and mortality rates on the proportion of all deaths that would occur in admitted children was examined. We used the same calculations to estimate the proportion of all SAM-related deaths that would be excluded with a MUAC-only policy in 48 countries with very different relative case loads for SAM by only MUAC, only WHZ and children with both deficits. The case fatality rates (CFR) are taken from simulations, empirical data and the literature. RESULTS: The relative number of cases of SAM by MUAC alone, WHZ alone and those with both criteria have a dominant effect on the proportion of all SAM-related deaths that would occur in children excluded from treatment by a MUAC-only program. Many countries, particularly in the Sahel, West Africa and South East Asia would fail to identify the majority of SAM-related deaths if a MUAC only program were to be implemented. Globally, the estimated minimum number of deaths that would occur among children excluded from treatment in our analyses is 300,000 annually. CONCLUSIONS: The number, proportion or attributable fraction of children excluded from treatment with any change of current policy are the correct indicators to guide policy change. CRFs alone should not be used to guide policy in choosing whether or not to drop WHZ as a diagnostic for SAM. All the criteria for diagnosis of malnutrition need to be retained. It is critical that methods are found to identify those children with a low WHZ, but not a low MUAC, in the community so that they will not remain undetected. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12937-018-0382-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.