Cargando…

Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transm...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Hutter, Sabine E., Käsbohrer, Annemarie, González, Silvia Lucia Fallas, León, Bernal, Brugger, Katharina, Baldi, Mario, Mario Romero, L., Gao, Yan, Chaves, Luis Fernando
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6142330/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30223839
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8
_version_ 1783355835789869056
author Hutter, Sabine E.
Käsbohrer, Annemarie
González, Silvia Lucia Fallas
León, Bernal
Brugger, Katharina
Baldi, Mario
Mario Romero, L.
Gao, Yan
Chaves, Luis Fernando
author_facet Hutter, Sabine E.
Käsbohrer, Annemarie
González, Silvia Lucia Fallas
León, Bernal
Brugger, Katharina
Baldi, Mario
Mario Romero, L.
Gao, Yan
Chaves, Luis Fernando
author_sort Hutter, Sabine E.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated. Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall. RESULTS: Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-6142330
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2018
publisher BioMed Central
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-61423302018-09-20 Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016) Hutter, Sabine E. Käsbohrer, Annemarie González, Silvia Lucia Fallas León, Bernal Brugger, Katharina Baldi, Mario Mario Romero, L. Gao, Yan Chaves, Luis Fernando BMC Vet Res Research Article BACKGROUND: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated. Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall. RESULTS: Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2018-09-17 /pmc/articles/PMC6142330/ /pubmed/30223839 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8 Text en © The Author(s). 2018 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research Article
Hutter, Sabine E.
Käsbohrer, Annemarie
González, Silvia Lucia Fallas
León, Bernal
Brugger, Katharina
Baldi, Mario
Mario Romero, L.
Gao, Yan
Chaves, Luis Fernando
Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_full Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_fullStr Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_full_unstemmed Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_short Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_sort assessing changing weather and the el niño southern oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in costa rica (1985–2016)
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6142330/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30223839
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8
work_keys_str_mv AT huttersabinee assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT kasbohrerannemarie assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT gonzalezsilvialuciafallas assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT leonbernal assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT bruggerkatharina assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT baldimario assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT marioromerol assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT gaoyan assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016
AT chavesluisfernando assessingchangingweatherandtheelninosouthernoscillationimpactsoncattlerabiesoutbreaksandmortalityincostarica19852016