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Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals
BACKGROUND: The ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a collapse of the healthcare system and the re-emergence of previously controlled or eliminated infectious diseases. There has also been an exodus of Venezuelan international migrants in response to the crisis. We sou...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6142906/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30192972 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/tay077 |
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author | Tuite, Ashleigh R Thomas-Bachli, Andrea Acosta, Hernan Bhatia, Deepit Huber, Carmen Petrasek, Kieran Watts, Alexander Yong, Jean H E Bogoch, Isaac I Khan, Kamran |
author_facet | Tuite, Ashleigh R Thomas-Bachli, Andrea Acosta, Hernan Bhatia, Deepit Huber, Carmen Petrasek, Kieran Watts, Alexander Yong, Jean H E Bogoch, Isaac I Khan, Kamran |
author_sort | Tuite, Ashleigh R |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a collapse of the healthcare system and the re-emergence of previously controlled or eliminated infectious diseases. There has also been an exodus of Venezuelan international migrants in response to the crisis. We sought to describe the infectious disease risks faced by Venezuelan nationals and assess the international mobility patterns of the migrant population. METHODS: We synthesized data on recent infectious disease events in Venezuela and among international migrants from Venezuela, as well as on current country of residence among the migrant population. We used passenger-level itinerary data from the International Air Transport Association to evaluate trends in outbound air travel from Venezuela over time. We used two parameter-free mobility models, the radiation and impedance models, to estimate the expected population flows from Venezuelan cities to other major Latin American and Caribbean cities. RESULTS: Outbreaks of measles, diphtheria and malaria have been reported across Venezuela and other diseases, such as HIV and tuberculosis, are resurgent. Changes in migration in response to the crisis are apparent, with an increase in Venezuelan nationals living abroad, despite an overall decline in the number of outbound air passengers. The two models predicted different mobility patterns, but both highlighted the importance of Colombian cities as destinations for migrants and also showed that some migrants are expected to travel large distances. Despite the large distances that migrants may travel internationally, outbreaks associated with Venezuelan migrants have occurred primarily in countries proximate to Venezuela. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding where international migrants are relocating is critical, given the association between human mobility and the spread of infectious diseases. In data-limited situations, simple models can be useful for providing insights into population mobility and may help identify areas likely to receive a large number of migrants. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6142906 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Oxford University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-61429062018-09-28 Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals Tuite, Ashleigh R Thomas-Bachli, Andrea Acosta, Hernan Bhatia, Deepit Huber, Carmen Petrasek, Kieran Watts, Alexander Yong, Jean H E Bogoch, Isaac I Khan, Kamran J Travel Med Original Article BACKGROUND: The ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a collapse of the healthcare system and the re-emergence of previously controlled or eliminated infectious diseases. There has also been an exodus of Venezuelan international migrants in response to the crisis. We sought to describe the infectious disease risks faced by Venezuelan nationals and assess the international mobility patterns of the migrant population. METHODS: We synthesized data on recent infectious disease events in Venezuela and among international migrants from Venezuela, as well as on current country of residence among the migrant population. We used passenger-level itinerary data from the International Air Transport Association to evaluate trends in outbound air travel from Venezuela over time. We used two parameter-free mobility models, the radiation and impedance models, to estimate the expected population flows from Venezuelan cities to other major Latin American and Caribbean cities. RESULTS: Outbreaks of measles, diphtheria and malaria have been reported across Venezuela and other diseases, such as HIV and tuberculosis, are resurgent. Changes in migration in response to the crisis are apparent, with an increase in Venezuelan nationals living abroad, despite an overall decline in the number of outbound air passengers. The two models predicted different mobility patterns, but both highlighted the importance of Colombian cities as destinations for migrants and also showed that some migrants are expected to travel large distances. Despite the large distances that migrants may travel internationally, outbreaks associated with Venezuelan migrants have occurred primarily in countries proximate to Venezuela. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding where international migrants are relocating is critical, given the association between human mobility and the spread of infectious diseases. In data-limited situations, simple models can be useful for providing insights into population mobility and may help identify areas likely to receive a large number of migrants. Oxford University Press 2018-09-18 /pmc/articles/PMC6142906/ /pubmed/30192972 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/tay077 Text en © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com |
spellingShingle | Original Article Tuite, Ashleigh R Thomas-Bachli, Andrea Acosta, Hernan Bhatia, Deepit Huber, Carmen Petrasek, Kieran Watts, Alexander Yong, Jean H E Bogoch, Isaac I Khan, Kamran Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals |
title | Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals |
title_full | Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals |
title_fullStr | Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals |
title_full_unstemmed | Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals |
title_short | Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals |
title_sort | infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of venezuelan nationals |
topic | Original Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6142906/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30192972 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/tay077 |
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