Patient Profiling Can Identify Spondylolisthesis Patients at Risk for Conversion from Nonoperative to Operative Treatment

BACKGROUND: Factors that are relevant to the decision regarding the use of surgical treatment for degenerative spondylolisthesis include disease-state severity and patient quality-of-life expectations. Some factors may not be easily appraised by the surgeon. In prospective trials involving patients undergoing nonoperative and operative treatment, there are instances of crossover in which patients from the nonoperative group undergo surgery. Identifying and understanding patient characteristics that may influence crossover from nonoperative to operative treatment will aid understanding of what motivates patients toward pursuing surgery. METHODS: Patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis who were randomized to nonoperative care in a prospective, multicenter study were evaluated over 8 years of enrollment. Two cohorts were defined: (1) the surgery cohort (patients who underwent surgery at any point) and (2) the nonoperative cohort (patients who did not undergo surgery). A Cox proportional hazards model, modeling time to surgery, was used to explore demographic data, clinical diagnoses, and patient expectations and attitudes after adjusting for other variables. A subanalysis was performed on surgery within 6 months after enrollment and surgery >6 months after enrollment. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-five patients who had been randomized to nonoperative treatment, 80 of whom crossed over to surgery, were included. In analyzing baseline differences between the 2 cohorts, patients who underwent surgery were younger; however, there were no significant difference between the cohorts in terms of race, sex, or comorbidities. Treatment preference, greater Oswestry Disability Index score, marital status, and no joint problems were predictors of crossover to surgery. Clinical factors, including stenosis, neurological deficits, and listhesis levels, did not show a significant relationship with crossover. At the time of long-term follow-up, the surgery cohort showed significantly greater long-term improvement in health-related quality of life (p < 0.001). The difference was maintained throughout follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Neurological symptoms and diagnoses, including listhesis and stenosis severity, did not predict crossover from nonoperative care to surgery. Attitudes toward surgery, greater Oswestry Disability Index score, marital status, and no joint problems were independent predictors of crossover from nonoperative to operative care. Certain demographic characteristics were associated with higher rates of crossover, although they were connected to patient attitudes toward surgery. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.