Recurrent large earthquakes related with an active fault-volcano system, southwest Japan

Based on fieldworks, trench excavation, archaeological evidence, and radiocarbon dating ages, we have identified at least three large normal faulting events within Aso caldera in the past ~3000 years, excluding the 2016 M(w) 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake. These events took place in AD ~1000, BC ~100, and BC ~1100, respectively, suggesting an average recurrence interval of ~1000 years. These events coincide with the timings of three large inferred paleoearthquakes within the Hinagu–Futagawa Fault Zone (HFFZ), where the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake rupture began. On the basis of geological, geophysical, and seismic data, we conclude that the recurrent normal faulting events within Aso caldera were triggered by the active faults of the HFFZ. As for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, seismic rupture initiated on the southwest side of the caldera, propagated northeastward, and terminated inside it. These findings demonstrate that large recurring earthquakes within an active fault-volcano system can be studied to improve our understanding of the termination of coseismic rupture propagation, and that the magma chamber beneath Mt. Aso probably hinders the propagation of coseismic rupture during large earthquakes.