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Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam
Although catch-up campaigns (CCs) at the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) may accelerate their impact, supply constraints may limit their benefit if the need for additional PCV doses results in introduction delay. We studied the impact of PCV13 introduction with and without CC...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Taylor & Francis
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6149911/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29781740 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2018.1467201 |
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author | Le Polain De Waroux, Olivier Edmunds, W. John Takahashi, Kensuke Ariyoshi, Koya Mulholland, E. Kim Goldblatt, David Choi, Yoon Hong Anh, Dang Duc Yoshida, Lay Myint Flasche, Stefan |
author_facet | Le Polain De Waroux, Olivier Edmunds, W. John Takahashi, Kensuke Ariyoshi, Koya Mulholland, E. Kim Goldblatt, David Choi, Yoon Hong Anh, Dang Duc Yoshida, Lay Myint Flasche, Stefan |
author_sort | Le Polain De Waroux, Olivier |
collection | PubMed |
description | Although catch-up campaigns (CCs) at the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) may accelerate their impact, supply constraints may limit their benefit if the need for additional PCV doses results in introduction delay. We studied the impact of PCV13 introduction with and without CC in Nha Trang, Vietnam – a country that has not yet introduced PCV – through a dynamic transmission model. We modelled the impact on carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of routine vaccination (RV) only and that of RV with CCs targeting <1y olds (CC1), <2y olds (CC2) and <5y olds (CC5). The model was fitted to nasopharyngeal carriage data, and post-PCV predictions were based on best estimates of parameters governing post-PCV dynamics. With RV only, elimination in carriage of vaccine-type (VT) serotypes is predicted to occur across all age groups within 10 years after introduction, with near-complete replacement by non-VT. Most of the benefit of CCs is predicted to occur within the first 3 years with the highest impact at one year, when IPD incidence is predicted to be 11% (95%CrI 9 – 14%) lower than RV with CC1, 25% (21 – 30 %) lower with CC2 and 38% (32 – 46%) lower with CC5. However, CCs would only prevent more cases of IPD insofar as such campaigns do not delay introduction by more than about 6, 12 and 18 months for CC1, CC2 and CC5. Those findings are important to help guide vaccine introduction in countries that have not yet introduced PCV, particularly in Asia. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6149911 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Taylor & Francis |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-61499112018-09-24 Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam Le Polain De Waroux, Olivier Edmunds, W. John Takahashi, Kensuke Ariyoshi, Koya Mulholland, E. Kim Goldblatt, David Choi, Yoon Hong Anh, Dang Duc Yoshida, Lay Myint Flasche, Stefan Hum Vaccin Immunother Research Paper Although catch-up campaigns (CCs) at the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) may accelerate their impact, supply constraints may limit their benefit if the need for additional PCV doses results in introduction delay. We studied the impact of PCV13 introduction with and without CC in Nha Trang, Vietnam – a country that has not yet introduced PCV – through a dynamic transmission model. We modelled the impact on carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of routine vaccination (RV) only and that of RV with CCs targeting <1y olds (CC1), <2y olds (CC2) and <5y olds (CC5). The model was fitted to nasopharyngeal carriage data, and post-PCV predictions were based on best estimates of parameters governing post-PCV dynamics. With RV only, elimination in carriage of vaccine-type (VT) serotypes is predicted to occur across all age groups within 10 years after introduction, with near-complete replacement by non-VT. Most of the benefit of CCs is predicted to occur within the first 3 years with the highest impact at one year, when IPD incidence is predicted to be 11% (95%CrI 9 – 14%) lower than RV with CC1, 25% (21 – 30 %) lower with CC2 and 38% (32 – 46%) lower with CC5. However, CCs would only prevent more cases of IPD insofar as such campaigns do not delay introduction by more than about 6, 12 and 18 months for CC1, CC2 and CC5. Those findings are important to help guide vaccine introduction in countries that have not yet introduced PCV, particularly in Asia. Taylor & Francis 2018-06-08 /pmc/articles/PMC6149911/ /pubmed/29781740 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2018.1467201 Text en © 2018 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. |
spellingShingle | Research Paper Le Polain De Waroux, Olivier Edmunds, W. John Takahashi, Kensuke Ariyoshi, Koya Mulholland, E. Kim Goldblatt, David Choi, Yoon Hong Anh, Dang Duc Yoshida, Lay Myint Flasche, Stefan Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam |
title | Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam |
title_full | Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam |
title_fullStr | Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam |
title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam |
title_short | Predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in Vietnam |
title_sort | predicting the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programme options in vietnam |
topic | Research Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6149911/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29781740 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2018.1467201 |
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