Estimation of the medical need for carbon-ion radiotherapy in Korea

The Korea Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator project focuses on the development of medical accelerator facilities for delivering carbon-ion beams to cancer patients. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the clinical need for carbon-ion therapy in Korea. Seven tumor sites, namely head and neck, liver, lung, colon and rectum, prostate, bone and soft tissue, and pancreas were selected as eligible sites for receiving carbon-ion radiotherapy (RT) by radiation oncologists of the Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences. Cancer incidence data for the selected tumor sites were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database in order to estimate the potential medical need for carbon-ion RT. The carbon-ion RT adaption rate was assessed based on the clinical experience of other carbon-ion therapy facilities. An estimation model was constructed for estimating the medical need for carbon-ion RT, and from this, 25 606 patients were deemed to be potential candidates for carbon-ion RT. This estimated potential need corresponded to 10% of newly diagnosed cancer patients in Korea. The realistic estimation was calculated as ranging between 4000 and 6300 patients, depending on the carbon-ion RT adaptation rate. This estimated medical need corresponded to 2–3% of newly diagnosed cancer patients in Korea. Taken together, our findings suggest that there is a clear medical need for carbon-ion RT in Korea, with at least 4000 potential patients per year.