Long-term changes in nitrogen and phosphorus emission into the Vistula and Oder catchments (Poland)—modeling (MONERIS) studies

Modeling (MONERIS) studies allowed calculation of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emission into the Vistula and Oder basins (Poland), and facilitated estimation of N and P retention in these catchments in 1995–2015. In the discussion of results, data of other authors were used in order to get an insight into N (1880–2015) and P emission (1955–2015) into the Oder basin. Population growth and agricultural intensification were responsible for respective 5.3-fold and 3.5-fold increase in N and P emission into the Oder basin, with the maximum (135,000 tons N year(−1); 14,000 tons P year(−1)) observed at the turn of the 1980s/1990s. Pro-ecological activities during the economic transition period (since 1989) covered various sectors of the economy including agriculture, environmental protection related to, e.g., construction of a large number of waste water treatment plants (WWTPs). Consequently, in 1985–2015, the emission into the Oder basin decreased from the abovementioned maxima to 94,000 tons N year(−1) and to 5000 tons P year(−1), whereas in 1995–2015, the emission into the Vistula basin decreased from 170,000 to 140,000 tons N year(−1) and from 14,200 to 10,600 tons P year(−1). In 1995–2015, groundwater, tile drainage, and WWTPs played a key role in N emission, while erosion, overland flow, WWTPs, and urban areas played a predominant role in P emission. The relative shares of nutrient emission pathways in overall N and P emission were considerably changing over time. Extreme weather conditions have a great impact on increased (floods) or decreased (droughts) nutrient emission; particularly, N emission is susceptible to variable weather conditions. In total, approximately 91,000 tons of N and 7600 tons of P were retained annually in the river basins. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11356-018-2945-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.