Progression of frailty and prevalence of osteoporosis in a community cohort of older women—a 10-year longitudinal study

SUMMARY: In community dwelling, 75-year-old women followed 10 years, a frailty index was created at each of three visits. Frailty score increased by ~ 6–7% annually. A higher frailty score was equivalent to being 5–10 years chronologically older. Frailty was associated with low bone density and higher risk of dying. INTRODUCTION: To understand the distribution of frailty among a population-based sample of older community-dwelling women, progression over 10 years, and association with mortality and osteoporosis. METHODS: The study is performed in a cohort designed to investigate osteoporosis. The OPRA cohort consists of 75-year-old women, n = 1044 at baseline, and follow-up at age 80 and 85. A frailty index (scored from 0.0–1.0) based on deficits in health across multiple domains was created at all time-points; outcomes were mortality up to 15 years and femoral neck bone density. RESULTS: At baseline, the proportion least frail, i.e., most robust (FI 0.0–0.1) constituted 48%, dropping to 25 and 14% at age 80 and 85. On average, over 10 years, the annual linear frailty score progression was approximately 6–7%. Among the least frail, 11% remained robust over 10 years. A higher frailty score was equivalent to being 5 to 10 years older. Mortality was substantially higher in the highest quartile compared to the lowest based on baseline frailty score; after 10 years, 48.7% had died vs 17.2% (p = 1.7 × 10(−14)). Mortality risk over the first 5 years was highest in the frailest (Q4 vs Q1; HR(unadj) 3.26 [1.86–5.73]; p < 0.001) and continued to be elevated at 10 years (HR(unadj) 3.58 [2.55–5.03]; p < 0.001). Frailty was associated with BMD after adjusting for BMI (overall p = 0.006; Q1 vs Q4 p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The frailty index was highly predictive of mortality showing a threefold increased risk of death in the frailest both in a shorter and longer perspective. Only one in ten older women escaped progression after 10 years. Frailty and osteoporosis were associated.