A similar effect of P16 hydroxymethylation and true-methylation on the prediction of malignant transformation of oral epithelial dysplasia: observation from a prospective study

BACKGROUND: Total P16 methylation (P16M), including P16 hydroxymethylation (P16H) and true-P16M, correlates with malignant transformation of oral epithelial dysplasia (OED). Both true-P16M and P16H are early events in carcinogenesis. The aim of this study is to prospectively determine if discrimination of true-P16M from P16H is necessary for prediction of cancer development from OEDs. METHODS: Patients (n = 265) with mild or moderate OED were recruited into the double blind two-center cohort. Total-P16M and P16H were analyzed using the 115-bp MethyLight, TET-assisted bisulfite (TAB) methylation-specific PCR (MSP), and TAB-sequencing. Total-P16M-positive and P16H-negative samples were defined as true-P16M-positive. Progression of OEDs was monitored for a minimum 24 months follow-up period. RESULTS: P16H was detected in 23 of 73 (31.5%) total-P16M-positive OEDs. Follow-up information was obtained from 247 patients with an ultimate compliance rate of 93.2%. OED-derived squamous cell carcinomas were observed in 13.0% (32/247) patients during follow-up (median, 41.0 months). The cancer progression rate for total-P16M-positive patients was significantly increased when compared to total-P16M-negative patients [23.3% vs 8.6%; adjusted odds ratio = 2.67 (95% CI: 1.19–5.99)]. However, the cancer progression rates were similar between P16H- and true-P16M-positive OEDs [26.1% (6/23) vs 22.0% (11/50); odds ratio = 0.80 (95% CI: 0.22–2.92)]. The cancer-free survival was also similar for these patients. CONCLUSION: P16H and true-P16M are similar biomarkers for determining malignant potential of OEDs. Discrimination of P16H from true-P16M, at least in OED, may be not necessary in clinical applications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered prospectively in the U.S. National Institutes of Health Clinical Trials Protocol Registration System (trial number NCT02967120, available at https://ClinicalTrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02967120). ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4787-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.