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Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas
Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, triggered thousands of widely felt and several damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas. The future seismic hazard remains uncertain. Here, we present a new methodology to forecast the probability of damaging induced earthquakes in space and time. I...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2018
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6158231/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30258058 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06167-4 |
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author | Langenbruch, Cornelius Weingarten, Matthew Zoback, Mark D. |
author_facet | Langenbruch, Cornelius Weingarten, Matthew Zoback, Mark D. |
author_sort | Langenbruch, Cornelius |
collection | PubMed |
description | Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, triggered thousands of widely felt and several damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas. The future seismic hazard remains uncertain. Here, we present a new methodology to forecast the probability of damaging induced earthquakes in space and time. In our hybrid physical–statistical model, seismicity is driven by the rate of injection-induced pressure increases at any given location and spatial variations in the number and stress state of preexisting basement faults affected by the pressure increase. If current injection practices continue, earthquake hazards are expected to decrease slowly. Approximately 190, 130 and 100 widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes are anticipated in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, with corresponding probabilities of potentially damaging M ≥ 5 earthquakes of 32, 24 and 19%. We identify areas where produced-water injection is more likely to cause seismicity. Our methodology can be used to evaluate future injection scenarios intended to mitigate seismic hazards. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-6158231 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2018 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-61582312018-10-01 Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas Langenbruch, Cornelius Weingarten, Matthew Zoback, Mark D. Nat Commun Article Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, triggered thousands of widely felt and several damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas. The future seismic hazard remains uncertain. Here, we present a new methodology to forecast the probability of damaging induced earthquakes in space and time. In our hybrid physical–statistical model, seismicity is driven by the rate of injection-induced pressure increases at any given location and spatial variations in the number and stress state of preexisting basement faults affected by the pressure increase. If current injection practices continue, earthquake hazards are expected to decrease slowly. Approximately 190, 130 and 100 widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes are anticipated in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, with corresponding probabilities of potentially damaging M ≥ 5 earthquakes of 32, 24 and 19%. We identify areas where produced-water injection is more likely to cause seismicity. Our methodology can be used to evaluate future injection scenarios intended to mitigate seismic hazards. Nature Publishing Group UK 2018-09-26 /pmc/articles/PMC6158231/ /pubmed/30258058 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06167-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Langenbruch, Cornelius Weingarten, Matthew Zoback, Mark D. Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas |
title | Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas |
title_full | Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas |
title_fullStr | Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas |
title_full_unstemmed | Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas |
title_short | Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas |
title_sort | physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in oklahoma and kansas |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6158231/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30258058 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06167-4 |
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