A model combining TNM stage and tumor size shows utility in predicting recurrence among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

OBJECTIVE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is a clinical challenge. An accurate prediction system for patients with HCC is needed, since the choice of HCC treatment strategies is very important. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 804 patients with HCC who underwent curative resection at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were included in this study. Demographics, clinicopathological data, and follow-up information were collected. RESULTS: A logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the relationships between clinical features and HCC recurrence. Tumor size (OR=1.454, 95% CI: 1.047–2.020, P=0.026) and TNM stage (OR=1.360, 95% CI: 1.021–1.813, P=0.036) were independent predictors of HCC recurrence after curative resection. Therefore, the following equation was established to predict HCC recurrence: 0.308×TNM+0.374×tumor size–0.639. The equation score was 0.53±0.23 in patients who experienced HCC recurrence compared with 0.47±0.24 in other patients. A similar trend was observed in patients who survived after the last follow-up, compared with those who did not, with scores of 0.37±0.26 vs 0.52±0.22, respectively (P<0.001). The Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that patients with HCC with equation values >0.5 had significantly worse outcomes than those with equation values ≤0.5 (P<0.001) for overall survival (OS) and recurrence (P=0.043). Multivariate Cox analyses showed that tumor multiplicity (P=0.039), involucrum (P=0.029), vascular invasion (P<0.001), and equation value (P<0.001) were independent prognostic variables for OS, whereas tumor multiplicity (P=0.01), tumor differentiation (P=0.007), vascular invasion (P<0.001), involucrum (P=0.01), and equation value (P<0.001) were independent prognostic variables for HCC recurrence. CONCLUSION: We established a novel and effective equation for predicting the probability of recurrence and OS after curative resection. Patients with a high recurrence score, based on this equation, should undergo additional high-end imaging examinations.