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Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota

The city of Bismarck, North Dakota has one of the highest numbers of West Nile Virus (WNV) cases per population in the U.S. Although the city conducts extensive mosquito surveillance, the mosquito abundance alone may not fully explain the occurrence of WNV. Here, we developed models to predict mosqu...

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Autores principales: Mori, Hiroko, Wu, Joshua, Ibaraki, Motomu, Schwartz, Franklin W.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6164257/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30189592
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15091928
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author Mori, Hiroko
Wu, Joshua
Ibaraki, Motomu
Schwartz, Franklin W.
author_facet Mori, Hiroko
Wu, Joshua
Ibaraki, Motomu
Schwartz, Franklin W.
author_sort Mori, Hiroko
collection PubMed
description The city of Bismarck, North Dakota has one of the highest numbers of West Nile Virus (WNV) cases per population in the U.S. Although the city conducts extensive mosquito surveillance, the mosquito abundance alone may not fully explain the occurrence of WNV. Here, we developed models to predict mosquito abundance and the number of WNV cases, independently, by statistically analyzing the most important climate and virus transmission factors. An analysis with the mosquito model indicated that the mosquito numbers increase during a warm and humid summer or after a severely cold winter. In addition, river flooding decreased the mosquito numbers. The number of WNV cases was best predicted by including the virus transmission rate, the mosquito numbers, and the mosquito feeding pattern. This virus transmission rate is a function of temperature and increases significantly above 20 °C. The correlation coefficients (r) were 0.910 with the mosquito-population model and 0.620 with the disease case model. Our findings confirmed the conclusions of other work on the importance of climatic variables in controlling the mosquito numbers and contributed new insights into disease dynamics, especially in relation to extreme flooding. It also suggested a new prevention strategy of initiating insecticides not only based on mosquito numbers but also 10-day forecasts of unusually hot weather.
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spelling pubmed-61642572018-10-12 Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota Mori, Hiroko Wu, Joshua Ibaraki, Motomu Schwartz, Franklin W. Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The city of Bismarck, North Dakota has one of the highest numbers of West Nile Virus (WNV) cases per population in the U.S. Although the city conducts extensive mosquito surveillance, the mosquito abundance alone may not fully explain the occurrence of WNV. Here, we developed models to predict mosquito abundance and the number of WNV cases, independently, by statistically analyzing the most important climate and virus transmission factors. An analysis with the mosquito model indicated that the mosquito numbers increase during a warm and humid summer or after a severely cold winter. In addition, river flooding decreased the mosquito numbers. The number of WNV cases was best predicted by including the virus transmission rate, the mosquito numbers, and the mosquito feeding pattern. This virus transmission rate is a function of temperature and increases significantly above 20 °C. The correlation coefficients (r) were 0.910 with the mosquito-population model and 0.620 with the disease case model. Our findings confirmed the conclusions of other work on the importance of climatic variables in controlling the mosquito numbers and contributed new insights into disease dynamics, especially in relation to extreme flooding. It also suggested a new prevention strategy of initiating insecticides not only based on mosquito numbers but also 10-day forecasts of unusually hot weather. MDPI 2018-09-05 2018-09 /pmc/articles/PMC6164257/ /pubmed/30189592 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15091928 Text en © 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Mori, Hiroko
Wu, Joshua
Ibaraki, Motomu
Schwartz, Franklin W.
Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota
title Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota
title_full Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota
title_fullStr Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota
title_full_unstemmed Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota
title_short Key Factors Influencing the Incidence of West Nile Virus in Burleigh County, North Dakota
title_sort key factors influencing the incidence of west nile virus in burleigh county, north dakota
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6164257/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30189592
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15091928
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