Quantifying the effects of aging and urbanization on major gastrointestinal diseases to guide preventative strategies

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to quantify the effects of aging and urbanization on major gastrointestinal disease (liver cirrhosis, hepatitis B, diarrhea, liver cancer, stomach cancer, pancreas cancer, hepatitis C, esophagus cancer, colon/rectum cancer, gastrointestinal ulcers, diabetes, and appendicitis). METHODS: We accessed 2004 and 2011 mortality statistics from the most developed cities and least developed rural areas in China using a retrospective design. The relative risk of death associated with urbanization and age was quantified using Generalized linear model (the exp.(B) from model is interpreted as the risk ratio; the greater the B, the greater the impact of urbanized factors or aging factor or effect of aging factor with urbanization). The interaction between region (cities and rural areas) and age was considered as indicator to assess role of age in mortality with urbanization. RESULTS: Greater risk of disease with urbanization were, in ascending order, for diabetes, colon/rectum cancer, hepatitis C and pancreas cancer. Stronger the effect of aging with urbanization were, in ascending order, for stomach cancer, ulcer, liver cancer, colon/rectum cancer, pancreas cancer, diabetes, hepatitis C, appendicitis and diarrhea. When the effects of aging and urbanization on diseases were taken together as the dividing value, we were able to further divide the 12 gastrointestinal diseases into three groups to guide the development of medical strategies. CONCLUSIONS: It was suggested that mortality rate for most gastrointestinal diseases was sensitive to urbanization and control of external risk factors could lead to the conversion of most gastrointestinal disease.