Island biogeography and ecological modeling of the amblypygid Phrynus marginemaculatus in the Florida Keys archipelago

AIM: The biogeography of terrestrial organisms across the Florida Keys archipelago is poorly understood. We used population genetics and spatioecological modeling of the Amblypygi Phrynus marginemaculatus to understand the genetic structure and metapopulation dynamics of Keys populations that are otherwise isolated by human development and ocean. LOCATION: The Florida Keys archipelago and mainland Florida. METHODS: We sequenced a 1,238 bp fragment of mtDNA for 103 individuals of P. marginemaculatus from 13 sites in the Florida Keys and South Florida, binned into four regions. We used population genetic analyses to understand the population structure of the species throughout its US range. Furthermore, we used ecological modeling with climate, habitat, and human development data to develop habitat suitability estimates for the species. RESULTS: We found clear genetic structure between localities. The Lower Keys, in particular, support populations separate from those in other regions studied. Ecological modeling and genetic analyses showed the highest habitat suitability and genetic isolation in the Lower Keys, but urban development across the species range has resulted in the loss of most historical habitat. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: A mainland‐metapopulation model best fits P. marginemaculatus gene flow patterns in the Florida Keys and mainland. Ocean currents likely play a role in metapopulation dynamics and gene flow for terrestrial Keys species like P. marginemaculatus, and genetic patterns also matched patterns consistent with geologic history. Suitable habitat, however, is limited and under threat of human destruction. The few remaining pockets of the most suitable habitat tend to occur in parks and protected areas. We argue that conservation efforts for this species and others in the terrestrial Florida Keys would benefit from a deeper understanding of the population genetic structure and ecology of the archipelago.