Genetic and immunological biomarkers predict metastatic disease recurrence in stage III colon cancer

BACKGROUND: Even though the post-operative outcome varies greatly among patients with nodal positive colon cancer (UICC stage III), personalized prediction of systemic disease recurrence is currently insufficient. We investigated in a retrospective setting whether genetic and immunological biomarkers can be applied for stratification of distant metastasis occurrence risk. METHODS: Eighty four patients with complete resection (R0) of stage III colon cancer from two clinical centres were analysed for genetic biomarkers: microsatellite instability, oncogenic mutations in KRAS exon2 and BRAF exon15, expression of osteopontin and the metastasis-associated genes SASH1 and MACC1. Tumor-infiltrating CD3 and CD8 positive T-cells were quantified by immunocytochemistry. Results were correlated with outcome and response to 5-FU based adjuvant chemotherapy, using Cox’s proportional hazard models and integrative two-step cluster analysis. RESULTS: Distant metastasis risk was significantly correlated with oncogenic KRAS mutations (p = 0.015), expression of SASH1 (p = 0.016), and the density of CD8-positive T-cells (p = 0.007) in Kaplan-Meier analysis. Upon multivariate Cox-regression analysis, KRAS mutation (p = 0.008) and density of CD8-positive TILs (p = 0.009) were retained as prognostic parameters for metachronous distant metastasis. Integrative two-step cluster analysis was used to combine all genetic markers, allowing stratification of patient subgroups. Post-operative distant metastasis risk ranged from 31% (low-risk) to 41% (intermediate), and 57% (high-risk) (p = 0.032). Increased expression of osteopontin (p = 0.019) and low density of CD8-positive T-cells (p = 0.043) were significantly associated with unfavourable response to 5-FU. CONCLUSIONS: Integrative biomarker analysis allows stratification of stage III colon cancer patients for the risk of metastatic disease recurrence and may indicate response to 5-FU. Thus, biomarker analysis might facilitate the use of adjuvant therapy for high risk patients. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4940-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.