Device-measured physical activity data for classification of patients with ventricular arrhythmia events: A pilot investigation

Low levels of physical activity are associated with increased mortality risk, especially in cardiac patients, but most studies are based on self-report. Cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) offer an opportunity to collect data for longer periods of time. However, there is limited agreement on the best approaches for quantification of activity measures due to the time series nature of the data. We examined physical activity time series data from 235 subjects with CIEDs and at least 365 days of uninterrupted measures. Summary statistics for raw daily physical activity (minutes/day), including statistical moments (e.g., mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis), time series regression coefficients, frequency domain components, and forecasted predicted values, were calculated for each individual, and used to predict occurrence of ventricular tachycardia (VT) events as recorded by the device. In unsupervised analyses using principal component analysis, we found that while certain features tended to cluster near each other, most provided a reasonable spread across activity space without a large degree of redundancy. In supervised analyses, we found several features that were associated with the outcome (P < 0.05) in univariable and multivariable approaches, but few were consistent across models. Using a machine-learning approach in which the data was split into training and testing sets, and models ranging in complexity from simple univariable logistic regression to ensemble decision trees were fit, there was no improvement in classification of risk over naïve methods for any approach. Although standard approaches identified summary features of physical activity data that were correlated with risk of VT, machine-learning approaches found that none of these features provided an improvement in classification. Future studies are needed to explore and validate methods for feature extraction and machine learning in classification of VT risk based on device-measured activity.