Brachial–ankle pulse wave velocity, cardio-ankle vascular index, and prognosis

BACKGROUND: Brachial–ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) are indices of arterial stiffness, and several studies have used these indices. However, there is no comprehensive review of these parameters in the prognostic significance. METHODS: The aim of this study was to review the articles exploring the prognostic significance of these parameters. Articles demonstrating independent significance after multivariate analysis on the Cox proportional hazards model were defined as “successful.” The success rate was compared using Fisher’s exact test. In addition, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to explore the independent determinants of the success of prognostic prediction. RESULTS: The success rate of the baPWV articles (65.7% [46/70]) tended to be higher than that of the CAVI articles (40.0% [6/15]; P=0.083). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that log (number of patients) (OR 11.20, 95% CI 2.45–51.70, P=0.002) and dialysis population (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.08–0.94, P=0.039) were positive and negative independent determinants of the success of prognostic prediction, respectively. In addition, after redefining two studies as the absence of arteriosclerosis obliterans (ASO) exclusion, baPWV (OR 3.36, 95% CI 0.86–13.20, P=0.083) and the existence of exclusion criteria of ASO (OR 3.08, 95% CI 0.96–9.93, P=0.060) exhibited statistical tendency in the multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that the number of study participants and dialysis population were the independent determinants of the success of prognostic prediction. This study also showed the importance of exclusion criteria of ASO when using these indices. In addition, a prospective large-scale study to confirm the superiority in the prognostic prediction of these indices is warranted.