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Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between temperature and cause specific mortality, and to quantify the corresponding disease burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 272 main cities in China. POPULATION: Non-accidental deaths in 272 cities...

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Autores principales: Chen, Renjie, Yin, Peng, Wang, Lijun, Liu, Cong, Niu, Yue, Wang, Weidong, Jiang, Yixuan, Liu, Yunning, Liu, Jiangmei, Qi, Jinlei, You, Jinling, Kan, Haidong, Zhou, Maigeng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6207921/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30381293
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4306
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author Chen, Renjie
Yin, Peng
Wang, Lijun
Liu, Cong
Niu, Yue
Wang, Weidong
Jiang, Yixuan
Liu, Yunning
Liu, Jiangmei
Qi, Jinlei
You, Jinling
Kan, Haidong
Zhou, Maigeng
author_facet Chen, Renjie
Yin, Peng
Wang, Lijun
Liu, Cong
Niu, Yue
Wang, Weidong
Jiang, Yixuan
Liu, Yunning
Liu, Jiangmei
Qi, Jinlei
You, Jinling
Kan, Haidong
Zhou, Maigeng
author_sort Chen, Renjie
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between temperature and cause specific mortality, and to quantify the corresponding disease burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 272 main cities in China. POPULATION: Non-accidental deaths in 272 cities covered by the Disease Surveillance Point System of China, from January 2013 to December 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Daily numbers of deaths from all non-accidental causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases. Potential effect modifiers included demographic, climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic characteristics. The analysis used distributed lag non-linear models to estimate city specific associations, and multivariate meta-regression analysis to obtain the effect estimates at national and regional levels. RESULTS: 1 826 186 non-accidental deaths from total causes were recorded in the study period. Temperature and mortality consistently showed inversely J shaped associations. At the national average level, relative to the minimum mortality temperature (22.8°C, 79.1st centile), the mortality risk of extreme cold temperature (at −1.4°C, the 2.5th centile) lasted for more than 14 days, whereas the risk of extreme hot temperature (at 29.0°C, the 97.5th centile) appeared immediately and lasted for two to three days. 14.33% of non-accidental total mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperatures, of which moderate cold (ranging from −1.4 to 22.8°C), moderate heat (22.8 to 29.0°C), extreme cold (−6.4 to −1.4°C), and extreme heat (29.0 to 31.6°C) temperatures corresponded to attributable fractions of 10.49%, 2.08%, 1.14%, and 0.63%, respectively. The attributable fractions were 17.48% for overall cardiovascular disease, 18.76% for coronary heart disease, 16.11% for overall stroke, 14.09% for ischaemic stroke, 18.10% for haemorrhagic stroke, 10.57% for overall respiratory disease, and 12.57% for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. The mortality risk and burden were more prominent in the temperate monsoon and subtropical monsoon climatic zones, in specific subgroups (female sex, age ≥75 years, and ≤9 years spent in education), and in cities characterised by higher urbanisations rates and shorter durations of central heating. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study provides a comprehensive picture of the non-linear associations between ambient temperature and mortality from all natural causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases, as well as the corresponding disease burden that is mainly attributable to moderate cold temperatures in China. The findings on vulnerability characteristics can help improve clinical and public health practices to reduce disease burden associated with current and future abnormal weather.
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spelling pubmed-62079212018-11-13 Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities Chen, Renjie Yin, Peng Wang, Lijun Liu, Cong Niu, Yue Wang, Weidong Jiang, Yixuan Liu, Yunning Liu, Jiangmei Qi, Jinlei You, Jinling Kan, Haidong Zhou, Maigeng BMJ Research OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between temperature and cause specific mortality, and to quantify the corresponding disease burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 272 main cities in China. POPULATION: Non-accidental deaths in 272 cities covered by the Disease Surveillance Point System of China, from January 2013 to December 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Daily numbers of deaths from all non-accidental causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases. Potential effect modifiers included demographic, climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic characteristics. The analysis used distributed lag non-linear models to estimate city specific associations, and multivariate meta-regression analysis to obtain the effect estimates at national and regional levels. RESULTS: 1 826 186 non-accidental deaths from total causes were recorded in the study period. Temperature and mortality consistently showed inversely J shaped associations. At the national average level, relative to the minimum mortality temperature (22.8°C, 79.1st centile), the mortality risk of extreme cold temperature (at −1.4°C, the 2.5th centile) lasted for more than 14 days, whereas the risk of extreme hot temperature (at 29.0°C, the 97.5th centile) appeared immediately and lasted for two to three days. 14.33% of non-accidental total mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperatures, of which moderate cold (ranging from −1.4 to 22.8°C), moderate heat (22.8 to 29.0°C), extreme cold (−6.4 to −1.4°C), and extreme heat (29.0 to 31.6°C) temperatures corresponded to attributable fractions of 10.49%, 2.08%, 1.14%, and 0.63%, respectively. The attributable fractions were 17.48% for overall cardiovascular disease, 18.76% for coronary heart disease, 16.11% for overall stroke, 14.09% for ischaemic stroke, 18.10% for haemorrhagic stroke, 10.57% for overall respiratory disease, and 12.57% for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. The mortality risk and burden were more prominent in the temperate monsoon and subtropical monsoon climatic zones, in specific subgroups (female sex, age ≥75 years, and ≤9 years spent in education), and in cities characterised by higher urbanisations rates and shorter durations of central heating. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study provides a comprehensive picture of the non-linear associations between ambient temperature and mortality from all natural causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases, as well as the corresponding disease burden that is mainly attributable to moderate cold temperatures in China. The findings on vulnerability characteristics can help improve clinical and public health practices to reduce disease burden associated with current and future abnormal weather. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. 2018-10-31 /pmc/articles/PMC6207921/ /pubmed/30381293 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4306 Text en Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Chen, Renjie
Yin, Peng
Wang, Lijun
Liu, Cong
Niu, Yue
Wang, Weidong
Jiang, Yixuan
Liu, Yunning
Liu, Jiangmei
Qi, Jinlei
You, Jinling
Kan, Haidong
Zhou, Maigeng
Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities
title Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities
title_full Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities
title_fullStr Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities
title_full_unstemmed Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities
title_short Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities
title_sort association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main chinese cities
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6207921/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30381293
http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k4306
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